WASHINGTON, September 28, 2026 — Cozen O’Connor Public Strategies, the bipartisan government relations and communications affiliate of international law firm Cozen O’Connor, today announced the addition of Alex Calabro as principal in its Washington, D.C., office.
Minnesota voters will head to the polls in just 4 weeks on Tuesday, November 3 to determine the control of both the executive and legislative branches. Election Day will reveal whether Minnesota will continue under divided government or revert back to a Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) trifecta like in the 2023-24 session when the DFL won the Governor’s race and majorities in the Minnesota House and Senate.
The national political climate continues to indicate headwinds for Republicans. However, Republicans in Minnesota seem to have found a bit of a hedge against the national atmospherics due to the pervasive fraud under the Walz Administration in many of Minnesota’s public programs, including Medicaid, childcare, and housing support programs.
Finally, there are three items of note in this election. First, all four candidates at the top of the ticket (U.S. Senate and Governor) are women, which is unprecedented in Minnesota. Second, Minnesota will elect a woman to the Governor’s office for the first time in its history. Third, Republicans have their best chance to win a statewide office for the first time in since 2006.
Minnesota’s first open U.S. Senate race in two decades is shaping up to be one of the state’s highest-profile contests. The seat was vacated by the retirement of current Senator Tina Smith (DFL). DFL nominee Peggy Flanagan, the current lieutenant governor, will face Republican nominee Michele Tafoya, former sports broadcaster and political commentator.
Recent polling data has suggested the race is a dead heat. Flanagan is a progressive candidate who also has been weighed down by the fraud issue while serving as Lieutenant Governor during the Walz Administration. However, she could benefit from a motivated Democratic base looking for a reason to vote against President Trump and his policies. Tafoya, on the other hand, has been painted by Flanagan and the DFL as a rubber stamp for President Trump and his agenda. However, she could benefit from broad name recognition from her time on Sunday Night Football and is polling incredibly well with some of the key demographics Republicans need in order to win statewide in Minnesota.
The race to replace retiring Governor Tim Walz (DFL) pits current U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar (DFL) against Rep. Lisa Demuth (R), the current Speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives. Historic polling has consistently shown Senator Klobuchar with a double-digit lead in the race, though that lead has narrowed over time to roughly 6-7 points. Klobuchar comes to the race with a considerable funding advantage and the experience of a well-known and generally well liked statewide elected official. With a month to go, she remains the favorite in the race for governor.
Demuth has broad support from the Republican establishment and is seen as a more mainstream. President Trump endorsed her opponent in the primary, which may bode well for a state that has consistently rejected Trump and Trump-like candidates when they’ve been on the ballot.
Attorney General Keith Ellison (DFL) is seeking re-election and is challenged by long-time attorney Ron Schutz (R). Polling data shows Schutz with a slight, 2-point lead. In the race, Republicans have attempted to tie Ellison to Minnesota’s government program fraud problem and Democrats have, in turn, tried to associate Schutz with Trump – specifically on issues like health care and abortion.
Minnesota enters the election with one of the most closely divided legislatures in the country. The Minnesota House is tied at 67-67 and the Minnesota Senate is controlled by the DFL with a narrow 34-33 majority. As a result, a relatively small number of swing districts will determine legislative control in 2027.
Most observers agree that the DFL has a clear advantage in the effort to gain control of the Minnesota House of Representatives. There are six current House Republicans sitting in seats that Kamala Harris won in the last presidential election. Historically in Minnesota, those seats have a high propensity to flip to the party opposite the sitting president in a midterm election. That, along with the fact that the House DFL currently holds only one seat also won by President Trump in the last election makes for a pretty good election map for the House DFL and leave House Republicans with a challenging path to a majority.
In the Minnesota Senate, where the DFL holds a one seat majority, the picture is slightly different. There is a path to the majority for the Republicans in the Senate, but the current national political climate means that is far from a guarantee. The DFL is defending three of its members sitting in seats Trump won, along with a fourth in the east metro that appears to be very closely divided. The pick up of just one of these seats by the Republicans would be enough to provide them with a majority in the Senate. However, that would require the Republicans to successfully defend all of its current seats. National political headwinds have forced Senate Republicans to aggressively defend two of the seats they currently hold in the Northwest metro, and some have begun to worry about potential losses in several other Republican seats.
In short, the DFL have an advantage in the Minnesota House and Governor’s race. The Minnesota Senate and U.S. Senate races remain a toss-up. If the DFL finds its way to a trifecta (DFL majorities in the House and Senate along with a DFL Governor), many expect a repeat of the 2023-24 legislative session, when that DFL trifecta ushered in massive policy wins for the left like paid family and medical leave and legalized marijuana. If the Republicans are able to gain a legislative majority in the House or Senate, or if Lisa Demuth prevails in the race for Governor, Republicans will lean heavily into the advantages of divided government to curb increases in state spending and taxes.
Senior Principal
Principal
Principal
Cozen O’Connor Public Strategies, an affiliate of the international law firm Cozen O’Connor, is a bipartisan government relations practice representing clients before the federal government and in cities and states throughout the country. With offices in Washington D.C., Richmond, Albany, New York City, Philadelphia, Harrisburg, Chicago, and Santa Monica, the firm’s public strategies professionals offer a full complement of government affairs services, including legislative and executive branch advocacy, policy analysis, assistance with government procurement and funding programs, and crisis management. Its client base spans multiple industries, including healthcare, transportation, hospitality, education, construction, energy, real estate, entertainment, financial services, and insurance.
Established in 1970, Cozen O’Connor has over 775 attorneys who help clients manage risk and make better business decisions. The firm counsels clients on their most sophisticated legal matters in all areas of the law, including litigation, corporate, and regulatory law. Representing a broad array of leading global corporations and middle-market companies, Cozen O’Connor serves its clients’ needs through 31 offices across two continents.
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