“Despite the prominence of ‘America First’ as a theme in the Trump administration, the president has found himself increasingly investing his time and energy across the globe – and beyond.” — Howard Schweitzer, CEO, Cozen O’Connor Public Strategies
The Cozen Lens
- President Trump’s philosophy may be “America First,” but thus far in his second term, he has increasingly focused on foreign policy and has staked out a role in conflicts around the world.
- President Trump has proposed several ways in which his administration may utilize the increased revenues his array of tariffs are yielding. However, these plans have yet to turn into reality as the White House faces legal obstacles that may primarily limit the application of the tariff revenue to offset the deficit impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
- A power struggle is emerging over who will lead NASA into its next era – and where it will go.
Trump Goes Global
Trump in the World. President Trump is seemingly everywhere all at once in foreign affairs.
- It’s common for presidents to pursue major foreign policy accomplishments during their second terms when they have a freer hand (such as former President Reagan’s nuclear arms control agreement with the Soviet Union or former President Obama’s Iran nuclear deal). What’s unusual about Trump’s second term is the scale of his foreign policy aspirations: he’s active on multiple fronts at the same time.
- In the Middle East, Trump ordered strikes on Iran’s nuclear program and secured a ceasefire in Israel’s war in Gaza.
- In Europe, Trump seeks a solution to Russia’s war in Ukraine. In recent weeks he spoke with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and last week imposed new sanctions on Russia’s oil industry, increasing the pressure on Moscow.
- In the Western Hemisphere, Trump has begun striking alleged drug-smuggling boats in the Caribbean Sea and has adopted an aggressive posture towards Venezuela, where he has authorized CIA covert action. The Pentagon has deployed a military buildup in the Caribbean, which included an aircraft carrier group as of last week. Farther south, the Trump administration has offered Argentina an economic bailout.
- This week, Trump is on an Asia trip that includes visits to Malaysia, Japan, and South Korea, and he is scheduled to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Global Leadership and “America First.” Trump’s approach to foreign policy challenges perceptions of his Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement as isolationist.
- Trump’s former Chief Strategist and current confidant Steve Bannon recently drew a distinction between the two. “We’re not isolationist, we’re non-interventionist,” he said in an Axios interview this month. The foreign policy of Trump’s second term has shown “America First” to be more about flexing US power abroad rather than retreating from the world. The Trump administration has carved out a role for the US president in global conflicts.
- Foreign policy plays to Trump’s strengths and image as a dealmaker. He has openly shared his wish to be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, an ambition that would put him among a small group of US presidents to receive the honor, including Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, Jimmy Carter (who received it after leaving office), and Obama.
- Even as Trump has intervened militarily, he has avoided boots on the ground, keeping the US out of the type of conventional deployments like in Iraq and Afghanistan that he criticized as a presidential candidate.
Potential Risks. Though there haven’t been signs of Trump losing his grip on the MAGA base so far, some of his foreign policy moves could risk blowback from within his party.
- Trump’s Argentina policy in particular has encountered opposition from a key part of his coalition: rural America. Senators representing agriculture-heavy states have criticized a Trump plan to boost imports of Argentine beef. “This isn’t the way to do it,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) told “I’m hoping that the White House has gotten the message.”
- Trump’s intervention in Iran previously split the MAGA world and “America First” true believers could object to future decisions that they may not see as being in US interests. Appearing on Tucker Carlson’s show, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) called the Argentina bailout “one of the grossest things” and described the administration’s approach as “a punch in the gut to all of our American cattle ranchers.”
Tariff Revenue’s (Limited) Uses
Tariff Revenue Isn’t a Rainy Day Fund. Despite President Trump’s proposed plans to use the increased revenue from his plethora of tariffs to support a host of different programs, legal limits appear to be inhibiting his ability to do so.
- As the average US tariff rate has increased under the Trump administration, the revenue generated from these import duties has also risen, totaling nearly $200 billion as of mid-October, with monthly revenue peaking over $60 billion in August and September. This represents a more than two-times increase in revenue over every year since 2017, in which revenue has tended to be less than $100 billion and more often between $60 and $80 billion.
- The White House has not been shy about its plans for how it wants to use the money, especially during the government shutdown, suggesting it could be used for troop pay, nutrition assistance programs, and aid to farmers. However, none of these plans have yet materialized in any meaningful way using money from the tariffs, as without authorization and appropriation from Congress, the Trump administration is limited in how it can use the funds.
- While the White House has pushed several boundaries of the executive branch’s traditional limits on how it manages government spending, it has so far not crossed the line of disbursing funds that have not been approved to be spent by Congress. Doing so would further exacerbate the tensions between Trump and Congress over the power of the purse. Legislation from Congress directing the use of tariff revenue toward at least some of these goals is possible, but it will likely first require an end to the ongoing government shutdown.
Shrinking the Deficit. Another primary objective that Trump has targeted with the tariff revenues is to reduce the federal deficit, but analyses suggest that the deficit impact of the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) will more than offset even the significant revenue boost anticipated from the tariffs.
- Estimates for the amount of money the tariffs could generate if they were left in place over the next decade tend to fall between $2 trillion and $3.5 trillion. This represents a substantial increase in government revenue. Still, its benefit is expected to be more than offset by the impact of the OBBBA, which is projected to incur a deficit of around $4 trillion.
- One of the reasons for the variations in the forecasted impacts of Trump’s tariffs is that most economic projections anticipate they will result in lower growth, leading to reduced revenues, both of which could be compounded by foreign retaliation that has so far been relatively muted. Now, the White House argues that the duties and tax cuts in the OBBBA will support growth in domestic manufacturing. This could offset some of the otherwise negative impacts of the tariffs, but it will take time to achieve, and so far, it has yet to be realized, with some industries now facing higher input costs as a result of Trump’s tariffs.
- Additionally, while the increase in tariff revenue is significant compared to past years, it still represents a relatively small amount of the total revenue collected by the federal government. Year to date, the government has collected around $4.6 trillion, of which the tariff revenue accounts for only about four percent, with the majority coming from income, Social Security, and Medicaid taxes.
To the Moon (Literally)
The Stars Hang in the Balance. There is a battle being waged over who will lead the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) under the Trump administration. Whoever comes out on top will determine the strategic vision of NASA at a pivotal time for the agency.
- Space travel is a major legacy issue for President Trump. China has set a goal of landing on the moon before the decade is out, setting a tight timeline the administration wants to beat. Transportation Secretary and current NASA acting Administrator Sean Duffy has emphasized revisiting our lunar neighbor above anything else; per the agency’s press secretary, he has “one clear goal — making sure America gets back to the moon before China,” including plans to install a nuclear reactor on its surface.
- Meanwhile, Jared Isaacman, who was Trump’s initial nominee to lead the space agency before being withdrawn, is close to SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, who is laser-focused on getting to Mars. While Isaacman doesn’t share Musk’s absolutism that the moon is nothing more than a “distraction,” he insisted in his confirmation hearing that the goals of reaching the Moon and Mars can exist simultaneously. Trump nominated Isaacman to lead NASA in December, the first time any president-elect had named a nominee to lead NASA before even entering office, reflecting the high influence SpaceX CEO Elon Musk held at the time. But Musk and Trump had a falling out earlier this year, Isaacman’s nomination was collateral damage. Now that Musk is back on better terms with Trump though, Isaacman is back in the mix.
- Duffy still is more directly tied to the White House, which proposed a 25 percent cut to NASA’s overall budget and a whopping 47 percent cut to its science division. The total budget would be the lowest adjusted for inflation since 1961, the year the first American went to space. Over 4,000 of the agency’s 17,000 employees have been fired or quit since the start of the year in the largest cuts in history. He also wants to look to the private sector for space stations to eventually replace the International Space Station. Isaacman, by contrast, described proposed 50 percent cuts to the science budget as “not. . .optimal” during his confirmation hearing.
Sean Duffy Envies Marco Rubio. Despite Isaacman’s candidacy being back in play, Duffy reportedly permanently wants the job he’s holding in an acting capacity in addition to his day job of being Transportation secretary, although Duffy himself denies that to be the case.
- At a minimum, Duffy appears to want to continue to play some role in NASA’s future. A NASA spokesperson has confirmed that he’s proposed bringing the space agency directly under the Department of Transportation or adding it to the Cabinet.
- A fight has broken out within the GOP over who should get the top spot. The battle spilled out into the open last week when Duffy announced in appearances on CNBC and Fox News that because SpaceX was behind schedule on preparing its Starship for a mission to the moon, NASA intended to seek alternative bids from other firms to see if they could get the job done. Modifying the SpaceX contract isn’t likely but Musk, who reached a public detente with Trump last month when they were seen sitting together at Charlie Kirk’s funeral, didn’t appreciate Duffy’s comments. Deriding him as “Sean Dummy” and possessing a “2 digit IQ,” Musk spoke implicitly in favor of Isaacman and predicted that “Starship will end up doing the whole Moon mission”. Other backers of Isaacman include conservative commentator Laura Loomer; the push is being led in Congress by Senator Tim Sheehy (R-MT). Other candidates in the running include retired Air Force official Joseph Guastella and former Rep. Mike Garcia (R-CA).
