Cozen Currents: Democrats State Their Case

“Democrats are not content with seeking just to flip control of Congress this November. They want to press their political advantage downballot, which is where legislating is increasingly occurring on a relative basis.” — Howard Schweitzer, CEO, Cozen O’Connor Public Strategies

The Cozen Lens

• An increasingly favorable national political environment for Democrats is strengthening the party’s prospects in this midterm cycle’s often overlooked state legislative races.
• The Trump administration is all-in on AI innovation, though this approach could have risks for electoral politics. Meanwhile, AI-related political spending is booming in the midterms.
• Top Trump administration officials are making the trek to Capitol Hill over the next few weeks, defending an unprecedented proposed defense spending increase, a massive cut to non-defense programs, and their own records on the job.

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Democrats Look to Capitalize Downballot

The Power of the State Legislature. As partisanship increasingly diminishes Congress’ ability to pass national legislation, state legislatures stand out for their comparatively robust pace of lawmaking and their relative impact.

• Congressional lawmakers increasingly reflect the more polarized and partisan nature of the American electorate. That dynamic appears not only in measures of congressional partisanship but also in a decline in congressional productivity. A January New York Times analysis found that both the number of roll call votes taken in the House and the number of laws enacted by Congress writ large have been on the decline for decades. In fact, 2025 set a record for the fewest roll call votes in the House over the last 25 years.
• Comparatively, a Fiscal Note analysis of state legislatures’ productivity in 2025 found that Congress’ state-level counterparts introduced roughly 135,000 bills and enacted about 29,000 of them. The higher level of productivity has made many state legislatures more responsive to voters’ concerns than Congress. For example, while lawmakers at the national level have yet to address data privacy, social media, and housing issues, Bloomberg reports that at least 20 states have enacted comprehensive consumer privacy laws. Dozens more have enacted social media age-verification laws while others are reforming zoning regulations to bolster housing development.
• In addition to Congress’ declining productivity, the value of control of state legislatures has been further increased by recent Supreme Court decisions. The Court’s 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision overturning Roe v. Wade placed abortion rights in the hands of the states, leading to a flurry of local legislative activity. The more recent curtailing of federal agency rulemakings combined with the Trump administration’s deregulatory agenda has shifted environmental policy to the states as well.

Democratic Competitiveness Stirring at the State Level. A wave of GOP retirements combined with Democratic candidate recruiting successes add to the national indicators that both parties believe Democrats’ political advantage could seep into downballot races this fall.

• Since 2010, the GOP has controlled more state legislative chambers than Democrats despite fluctuations in control of Congress and the presidency. This suggests a level of entrenched support for the party not seen at the national level. Today, the GOP controls 56 legislative chambers, while the Democrats control 40 chambers.
• But as the GOP’s popularity wanes nationally, Democrats are seizing the opportunity to target state legislative races. In December, the New York Times reported that the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) was developing an ambitious plan to contest 650 state legislative seats across 42 state legislative chambers. According to reporting by News of the United States, the DLCC’s strategy is already yielding results: the group successfully recruited Democratic candidates to contest 100 percent of districts in both Texas chambers, both North Carolina chambers, the South Carolina House, and the Indiana Senate, as well as 88 percent of Georgia House seats and 90 percent of Indiana House seats. This marks a significant increase over prior cycles.
• In contrast to the DLCC’s success, Politico reports that “more than a dozen GOP leaders in state legislatures across the country…have opted to resign or have announced their retirement over the past 14 months.” While not a perfect indicator, retirements, particularly at the leadership level, are often indicative of concerns with the political environment. Those fears are bolstered by analysis from Sabato’s Crystal Ball that finds incumbent presidents typically preside over downballot losses for their party in midterm elections.

GOP Plays Defense on This Year’s State Legislative Map. In addition to a national environment that favors Democrats, GOP state lawmakers are contending with a map that favors Democratic pickup opportunities across the board.

• Heading into the midterms, Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates the control of 15 state legislative chambers as competitive, eight of which are held by the GOP. In Pennsylvania, Democrats need to flip three state Senate seats to gain unified control of government. Similarly in Michigan, single-digit seat pickups in the state House could secure a Democratic governing trifecta depending on the gubernatorial outcome. In Maine and Minnesota, Democrats are seeking to grow their governing trifectas in toss-up rated races. And in New Hampshire and Arizona, Democrats have an opportunity to flip control of three state legislative chambers.
• An additional 18 state legislative chambers are rated as “likely” favoring one party or the other by Crystal Ball, 14 of which are controlled by the GOP. While control of these chambers isn’t likely to flip, they do present opportunities for the minority party, particularly Democrats in this case, to gain seats. That’s especially important in a number of chambers where the GOP’s supermajority status is at risk. Democrats have opportunities to break GOP supermajorities with single-digit seat pickups in the Ohio state House, the North Carolina state Senate, the Missouri state Senate and House, the Kansas state House, the Iowa state House, the Indiana state House, and either Florida legislative chamber. The party can also secure its own supermajorities in the Nevada state Assembly and the Delaware state House with single-digit pickups.

The Electoral Politics of AI

Political Warning Signs. President Trump’s AI policy may not be a net benefit for his party this election year.

• The Wall Street Journal reported that in advance of the midterm elections, the White House plans to concentrate on the tech race with China more than AI-related job loss concerns, believing that AI will boost the US economy. David Sacks may have formally left his role as AI and crypto czar but his aggressive and uncompromising view of AI still appears to hold sway in the Trump administration.
• Recent polling suggests trepidation about AI among members of the public. A March Quinnipiac poll found that 62 percent of Americans are “not so excited” about AI or “not excited at all,” compared to 35 percent who are “very” or “somewhat excited.” A Pew Research poll found that only 21 percent and 23 percent of Americans thought AI would have a positive impact on the economy and how people do their jobs, respectively. The same poll found that just 31 and 36 percent of Americans thought AI’s impact would be negative in these areas. A March NBC News poll found that only 26 percent of voters viewed AI positively while 46 percent viewed it negatively. The negative net favorability for AI was the lowest of all 14 topics included in the poll except for the Democratic Party and Iran.
• Even younger Americans, the generation that would be expected to be most enthusiastic about new technology, has growing concerns about AI. Gallup found that the percentage of Gen Z who felt “excited” about AI fell from 36 percent to 22 percent from 2025 to 2026 and the percentage who felt “hopeful” about AI sank from 27 percent to 18 percent.
• Most voters probably aren’t going to make their decisions at the polls with AI policy in mind. The economy, specifically affordability, is likely to be a top issue for voters this year. AI could factor into voters’ decision-making, however, if they connect the Trump administration’s light-touch approach to regulation with their economic concerns.

AI-Related Political Spending. The AI sector is spending big on the midterm elections this year.

• According to a tracker by Transformer News, AI super PACs have spent $11.71 million on the 2026 midterms thus far, including $8.15 million on the “pro-innovation” side and $3.56 million on the “pro-safety” side. That spending has been concentrated in four states: Texas, Illinois, North Carolina, and New York. The Empire State is home to a marquee Democratic primary in which the author of the state’s AI safety law is a candidate. So far this spending has been successful: in all but one of 11 congressional primaries where AI political groups Leading the Future and Public First Action got involved, their favored candidates won or advanced to a runoff.
• The “pro-innovation” side of the AI debate boasts significant war chests. Politico reported last week that Leading the Future, which opposes AI regulation, has secured $140 million in contributions and commitments since last August and has $100 million in cash. Innovation Council Action, a new group led by former Trump White House Deputy Chief of Staff Taylor Budowich, plans to spend over $100 million to support Trump’s AI agenda.
• On the other side, Politico reported that a super PAC affiliated with pro-regulation Public First Action plans to spend $500,000 in support of the congressional campaign of California state Senator Scott Wiener (D), author of California’s landmark AI safety law.
• This influx of political spending leaves the AI sector poised to play a bigger role in electoral politics than in the past, similar to how crypto has flexed its political muscles.

Trump’s Cabinet and Congress Try to Turn the Page to FY27 Budget

An April Legislative Sprint. Cabinet members are using the latest congressional work period to defend their record and urge the passage of the president’s proposed FY27 budget, but Republicans in Congress are still struggling with how to finish the FY26 appropriations process.

• The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has been without funding for over 60 days, a record. While President Trump has redirected funds to continue to pay employees, this solution is not sustainable. Democrats and Republicans remain at an impasse, with the former demanding reforms to officer conduct following the killing of two US citizens by DHS agents earlier this year while the latter continues to object to these requests both procedurally and on their own merits. The unfinished budget for this year casts a pall on talks for next year’s budget as the GOP is seeking to cover funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection for the rest of Trump’s term via a party-line reconciliation bill.
• The administration’s proposed budget for FY27 is no less anathema to Democrats than current immigration enforcement funding. The White House is demanding an unprecedented 44 percent increase in defense spending to $1.5 trillion alongside an unprecedented 10 percent cut to non-defense discretionary spending (emergency stimulus come-downs excluded). This violates the Democrats’ long-held appropriations principle: that there will be parity between any increase in defense and non-defense spending. It’s important to note that none of the $1.5 trillion is intended to cover the potential supplemental funding request to backfill munitions used in the Iran conflict.
• Top administration officials are making their typical annual pilgrimages to Capitol Hill as part of the appropriations process, to discuss and vouch for the president’s proposal. Ostensibly about the budget, these hearings also give lawmakers an opportunity to question the witnesses on hot-button issues. Poor performance by high-level members of the Trump administration could put their roles in jeopardy. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., previously encouraged to “go wild,” has been reeled in somewhat, taking a more conciliatory tone towards vaccines in the first two of his six hearings this month. The principal drafter of the budget, Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought, was put in the hot seat by members of both parties for unilaterally withholding (i.e. “impounding”) funds already passed into law.

White House Hopes to Thread the Needle. Each proposed solution by the Trump administration to solve one of its problems yields additional complications.

• In an attempt to get around the parity problem, the administration intends for $1.15 trillion of the requested defense spending to pass as part of the usual appropriations process and $350 billion to pass as a part of yet another reconciliation bill. Some GOP members have long desired another (comprehensive) bite at the reconciliation apple, and Republican leadership has floated using the process to assuage Trump’s desire to pass voting reform. Given how difficult it is to pass narrowly-tailored immigration funding, a third reconciliation bill that includes defense spending and other priorities is unlikely to advance this year.
• Although House GOP appropriators want to move quickly now to draft the 12 appropriations bills for FY27, this year’s government funding process will likely extend beyond the September 30th deadline (as it almost always does), partially because of the midterm elections. Instead of passing all 12 bills before October, the most likely outcome is that both chambers agree to a continuing resolution that pushes the funding deadline past the elections or even into the new year. There is the potential for both parties in Congress and the White House to reach a FY27 agreement during the lame duck session in December, especially if Democrats take control of one or both chambers of Congress. There could be a shared desire to clear the decks on appropriations before the new Congress is seated in January. But given the present level of dysfunction in Washington, there is no guarantee that this can be accomplished.

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