Cozen Currents: What Happens to Trump’s Coalition After Trump?

“President Donald Trump has boldly asserted, ‘I am MAGA.’ This begs the question of what happens to the MAGA movement – and Trump’s unique coalition of voters – once Trump leaves office.” — Howard Schweitzer, CEO, Cozen O’Connor Public Strategies

The Cozen Lens

• President Trump transformed the Republican Party’s coalition during his decade in national politics, but the future of his MAGA movement in a post-Trump GOP is uncertain.
• As lawmakers return to DC, the next several weeks will be their last chance to move major legislation before the midterm elections take over. After the August recess, the brief fall legislative session will be consumed by government funding negotiations. The next real opening for legislative activity won’t come until the post-election lame-duck period, typically reserved for must-pass items like the national defense policy bill.
• President Trump’s relationship with the UK has been defined by tension and special treatment in equal measure, and Andy Burnham’s imminent ascension to prime minister will test whether that balance holds under a leader whom Washington barely knows.

Subscribe to Cozen Currents

The Future of MAGA Coalition Politics

The Trump Factor. Since he first descended the golden escalator over a decade ago, President Trump has transformed the Republican Party’s coalition.

• In his two winning campaigns for president, Trump successfully built a political movement with deep support among working-class voters. In his 2024 re-election, he made notable inroads with traditionally Democratic demographics, including Black and Hispanic voters and union members, and he widened the Republican tent by welcoming Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement into the fold.
• At first glance, Trump may seem like an unlikely populist leader for the working class given his background as a billionaire businessman from New York City. His intense personal following among his base has helped him secure loyalty from his voters and is key to his electoral success.
• Despite slipping national approval ratings, Trump remains powerful within the Republican Party. His endorsement can effectively clear the field for his chosen candidates in most GOP primaries. Other than in a handful of races, including the Iowa and Georgia gubernatorial primaries, Trump’s picks have emerged victorious. Per Ballotpedia, his 2026 primary success rate is 98 percent.

MAGA Divisions. While the MAGA movement is largely unified around Trump, several wedge issues are straining the coalition.

• Trump campaigned under the auspices of his “America First” approach to foreign policy and his decision to launch the conflict with Iran has alienated some key supporters. These alienated supporters include former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) and Tucker Carlson, who said on a podcast last month that he would no longer support the GOP. Other issues dividing the GOP that Greene spoke out about include AI regulation and the release of files relating to Jeffrey Epstein.
• Though he appointed the Supreme Court justices who overturned Roe v. Wade, Trump declined to take a clear position on abortion during the 2024 campaign and hasn’t emphasized the issue during his second term. His administration’s lack of action to restrict abortion medication has sparked frustration among members of the anti-abortion movement.
• MAHA was a political asset for Republicans in 2024 but it’s not yet apparent if Trump was just borrowing these voters or if they will find a permanent place in the GOP. His decision to invoke the Defense Production Act to boost production of glyphosate-based herbicides angered many in the MAHA movement who are suspicious of the chemical. Addressing the MAHA contingent, Trump signed an executive order last month promoting research on pesticide exposure, but the order doesn’t include major policy changes.

What’s Next for MAGA? Trump is the indisputable leader of MAGA now but is also a lame duck and there’s no clear path forward for his base.

• The 2026 midterm elections provide an early indicator of Republicans’ electoral fortunes without Trump on the ballot. However, historical trends against the president’s party make this an imperfect signal. The big test of whether Trump’s MAGA coalition can outlast his presidency will come in 2028 when Republicans select a new standard-bearer who will shape what the party stands for post-Trump.
• Vice President JD Vance is in the most advantageous position for the 2028 presidential race, but this will be the GOP’s first open election cycle without a current or former incumbent since 2016. Other aspirants to the Oval Office are unlikely to let him have the nomination without a fight.
• Other populist Republicans have emerged in Trump’s wake, such as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Missouri Senator Josh Hawley, and Secretary of Homeland Security Markwayne Mullin, and could keep advancing the GOP’s focus on the working class. On the other hand, pre-Trump Republicans like Secretary of State Marco Rubio or Texas Senator Ted Cruz could seek another bid for the nomination and may be less inclined toward Trump’s brand of populism. Without Trump’s personal touch, however, it may be more challenging to keep the MAGA coalition intact in its current form.
• Furthermore, Democrats are not sitting idly by. They are actively seeking to re-build their standing with working class voters. While scandal-plagued oysterman Graham Platner’s campaign in Maine self-destructed, the rebranding of Democratic candidates as populist outsiders fighting against both the Democratic establishment and the currently GOP-controlled system will only continue to grow.

Congress’s Last Hurrah

The Senate’s Summer Agenda. With four weeks until the August recess, the Senate faces a crowded agenda that includes the chamber’s version of the must-pass defense policy bill, a key intelligence authority reauthorization, a slate of consequential cabinet nominations, and the market structure bill the crypto industry has pursued for years.

• Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) plans to kick off the summer session with the chamber’s National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), teeing it up for a vote as soon as this week. Just passing the Senate’s version of the bill would be a win — the Senate has struggled to advance its draft in recent years — but the path isn’t straightforward. In a potential sign of trouble for the floor, a majority of Senate Armed Services Committee Democrats opposed the bill in committee, an unusual occurrence for a traditionally bipartisan bill. Additionally, Thune will need to strike a deal on amendments, which can cause complications. Clearing the NDAA will only mark the Senate’s opening bid, as the final bill will be a compromise product negotiated with the House.
• If the Senate can clear the NDAA in the coming days, the crypto industry and its allies in the Senate are eyeing the next two weeks as an opportunity to advance the sector’s top priority: the crypto market structure bill. Although the legislation advanced out of the Senate Banking and Agriculture Committees earlier this year, the bill lacks the necessary Democratic support to overcome a filibuster. Unresolved issues include officeholder ethics language, illicit finance tools, and tweaks to the Agriculture Committee’s portion of the bill. Punchbowl News reports that Thune could put an unfinished version of the bill on the floor before the recess as fears grow that missing this legislative window could doom the bill for years to come.
• Running parallel to these bills will be a slate of key cabinet and sub-cabinet confirmations. The marquee nominating fight centers on acting Attorney General Todd Blanche’s move to the permanent position. Blanche is scheduled for a two-day confirmation hearing on July 15th and 16th, and if he can satisfy GOP concerns over the president’s anti-weaponization fund and audit immunity, he could be confirmed to the role by early August. However the recently deceased Senator Lindsey Graham’s (R-SC) absence from the Judiciary Committee could result in committee action on Blanche’s nomination being delayed. At the same time, the rescheduled confirmation hearing for Jay Clayton, US attorney for the Southern District of New York, as director of national intelligence is slated for July 15th. Thune may attempt to fast-track Clayton’s confirmation vote to unjam the reauthorization of a key intelligence authority. Acting Labor Secretary Keith Sonderling, the president’s nominee for the permanent position, and Erica Schwartz, the nominee to lead the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, will also have their confirmation hearings this week.

The House’s Summer Agenda. The House faces a compressed legislative window with its recess set to begin July 24th, but accomplishing anything hinges on reopening a floor its own members have frozen.

• With only two weeks to work, the House’s big-ticket legislative agenda begins this week with a potential vote on the FY27 National Security-State appropriations bill and next week with a vote on the House’s National Defense Authorization Act. Whether either can pass, though, will be determined by House conservatives, who banded together before recess to prevent consideration of any legislation. The issue is the Senate’s failure to pass the election security bill known as the SAVE America Act; House conservatives want to tie the bill to must-pass legislation to force the Senate to take it up. House Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-LA) attempts to placate his conservative wing have failed so far.
• In addition to the must-pass bills, an unresolved immigration fight is simmering behind the scenes. House conservatives led by Representative Chip Roy (R-TX) continue to push for a promised floor vote on the party’s signature border security bill. Johnson so far hasn’t brought it up due to opposition from more moderate members, who have warned they’ll counter with their own demands to ease legal immigration if the bill moves. Meanwhile, Johnson himself is floating a narrower “birth tourism” bill after the Supreme Court upheld birthright citizenship, but the idea is still in its early stages.
• One item is nowhere to be found on the House’s legislative agenda: reconciliation 3.0. Johnson continues to promote the prospects of a defense-focused third reconciliation bill that could also include election security measures, tax policy, and anti-fraud measures. However, the actual work on drafting even an outline of the bill hasn’t begun. While Johnson plans to continue meeting with lawmakers about the bill, many of his colleagues recognize the shrinking calendar, paired with opposition within the Senate GOP, weaken its political prospects.

London Calling

Still Special, Just Complicated. During President Trump’s second term, the US-UK relationship has had its share of ups and downs, but there remain signs that the “special relationship” is not entirely gone.

• One of the most recent disputes between the US and the UK concerned the US’s ability to use British military bases during its conflict with Iran. Outgoing UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer notably sought to pursue a different path from that of former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair in 2003 during the war in Iraq. The UK did allow limited access to the bases for defensive purposes, but that did not stop Trump from deriding Britain’s actions as insufficient and accusing the country of being “very, very uncooperative.”
• Another pain point under the current administration has been the US’s trade policy. The UK has been targeted with tariffs and set to face a 10 percent tariff under the latest set of duties expected to be enacted later this month, which is in line with past agreements. The sectoral tariffs, especially those on automobiles, steel, and aluminum, were also points of particular contention early in Trump’s return to office.
• Still, despite these tensions, the UK has secured several trade concessions that have so far eluded other countries. Not only was it the first to secure a deal after Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs were announced in 2025, but it was also one of the few countries to secure relief from the steel and aluminum tariffs. Trump has also traveled to the UK for a state visit and hosted King Charles III in Washington during the first 18 months of his presidency, underscoring the strong ties enduring between the countries despite policy disputes.

Burnham’s Burden. As Andy Burnham prepares to become the UK’s seventh post-Brexit Prime Minister, the real test with the US will not be the transition itself but what comes after: an unfamiliar face and a possible personnel shake-up on trade just as the laborious work of implementation ramps up.

• While the UK may not formally have a new Prime Minister until September 1, Andy Burnham has emerged as the clear favorite to succeed Starmer, with his inauguration likely to be a matter of when and not if. Burnham is expected to focus primarily on domestic politics as he finds his footing in the role.
• Still, the US-UK relationship is too big to ignore, and Burnham will have to engage with Trump early in his tenure. Burnham is not particularly well-known overseas, which will give him an opportunity to build relationships with limited pre-existing biases. However, Burnham’s lack of profile also raises the question of how he will approach the US-UK relationship.
• On the trade relationship front, while the deals secured under Starmer’s tenure give Burnham a strong footing, additional work will likely be required to implement them in the months ahead, including the drug pricing agreement struck last December. One question hanging over this transition for trade policy in particular is whether there will be additional personnel changes for the UK. It remains unknown whether Varun Chandra, Starmer’s special envoy to the US, will remain in his position, as he has become an important connection between Trump and the British government. Chandra has received praise from his US colleagues during their negotiations, and he has been closely involved in all of the agreements struck so far.

Share

Share this...

Facebook

Pinterest

Twitter

Linkedin