Cozen Currents: What the Midterms Did and Didn’t Change

“As the saying goes, ‘The more things change, the more they stay the same.’ While it’s undeniable that the midterms sent a political earthquake through Washington (and the states), President Donald Trump will continue to wield power at the federal level, primarily through a broad interpretation of executive power. And despite their significantly expanded numbers, Democrats still will wrestle with developing a consensus agenda.” — Howard Schweitzer, CEO, Cozen O’Connor Public Strategies

The Cozen Lens

• With many of his top legislative priorities already enacted, President Trump enters a divided government, relying on executive action and a smaller but more loyal GOP minority, while the 2028 field begins to take shape around him.
• Democrats exceeded expectations in the midterms, leaving each faction claiming they earned a mandate. But with a much bigger tent now, no faction can dictate the party’s agenda alone. With their 2028 field likely expanding, it will take time before a nominee can assert themselves as the party’s next leader.
• Democrats’ gains in gubernatorial, attorney general, and state legislative elections last week put them in the strongest position they’ve had on the state level since the 2010 Republican wave but Election Day also revealed divisions between moderates and progressives.

Subscribe to Cozen Currents

Trump and the GOP Reckon with the Midterms

Governing Without Congress. Since President Trump has already signed his top second-term legislative priority, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), into law, the end of the GOP’s governing trifecta will have a measured impact on the president’s legislative agenda.

• President Trump and GOP leadership intentionally packaged a majority of the party’s top legislative priorities into the July 2025 OBBBA, ensuring that a portion of the party’s agenda wasn’t caught up in internal divisions or a change of power in Congress. As Trump himself said in February, “…we put everything together, and this was a four-year package…and so in theory, we’ve gotten everything passed that we need for four years.” Congressional Republicans and the White House also funded immigration enforcement agencies through the end of the president’s term, removing a potential point of friction in divided government.
• Even so, the White House and congressional Democrats will still need to work together on “must-pass” legislation such as spending bills, a debt ceiling increase, and the annual defense policy bill. These measures could serve as vehicles to pass other unrelated bills if the opportunities to move must-pass legislation become more limited under a divided government. Democrats are already signaling that they’ll use must-pass bills to implement policy changes, such as placing funding restrictions around foreign conflicts or delaying or rolling back OBBBA policies, teeing up potential confrontations with the White House that could raise the risk of future shutdowns or legislative standoffs. With Democrats also threatening to block confirmations of cabinet officials and judges, the president will be forced to rely more heavily on his existing team, in their current or acting roles.
• To keep the president’s agenda moving under divided government, Trump and his team plan to rely more heavily on executive actions. Reuters reports that senior White House staff have been working for months to identify unilateral actions for a divided government, potentially including “…new tariffs on imports of critical minerals and wind turbines, tighter rules on visas for international students and temporary foreign workers, and measures aimed at lowering housing and construction costs.”

The New GOP Congress. Next Congress, the GOP minority will be smaller but more closely aligned with Trump, and its main job will be absorbing Democratic oversight.

• Although Democrats flipped several House and Senate seats in deep GOP territory, the bulk of the party’s gains came at the expense of GOP moderates such as Representative Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA), Representative Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ), and Senator Susan Collins (R-ME). That leaves a smaller and more conservative GOP conference in the House and Senate next Congress. While some members will have an incentive to break with the White House as they eye higher office in 2028, losses among GOP lawmakers most likely to oppose White House policy will leave a GOP conference that remains supportive of the president’s agenda.
• With Democrats teeing up investigations of Trump administration officials and companies with White House ties for January, the primary focus of the GOP minorities next Congress will be defending against oversight. The dynamic is already present in the House GOP leadership fight, with both Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-OH) and Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) centering their pitch for minority leader on their ability to counter Democratic investigations.

The Door Opens for 2028. As vice president, JD Vance remains the 2028 GOP frontrunner, but midterm losses have lowered the political cost of breaking with the administration and slightly widened the door for rivals.

• According to the Cook Political Report, history favors Vance: five of six sitting vice presidents who sought their party’s nomination over the last century won it. The vice president has the advantage of name recognition, cross-country travel, and donor connections through his position as Republican National Committee finance chair. But the midterm results pose a potential challenge for Vance, who already is signaling a strategic pivot on social media even as the Wall Street Journal reports he hasn’t made up his mind about 2028.
• With Vance’s path less certain, potential rivals feel emboldened to clarify their 2028 ambitions. The Washington Post reports that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) is preparing another run for president, believing the midterms have created an opening. Bloomberg reports that Secretary of State Marco Rubio is also reconsidering his political future, though Rubio himself has denied any plans to exit the administration early.

Democrats Gained a Platform But What Will They Say?

Limits to Success. With President Trump still in the White House, Democrats are limited in what they can accomplish in Congress on their own.

• Democrats romped last week, taking the second-largest Senate majority of the 21st century and are currently favored to win a staggering 260 House seats (according to prediction markets). This is doubtless a gigantic win and a major rebuke of Trump. But in the US, the system is designed to limit change.
• Fifty-six Senate seats is a lot, but it’s still not 60, meaning any and all legislation aiming to make its way out of the upper chamber still needs Republicans to sign on to beat the filibuster. Trump still wields the veto pen, and overcoming it requires a two-thirds majority in both chambers. At the same time, the election wiped out many moderate GOP members who would otherwise buck Trump and occasionally side with Democrats on issues.
• Instead, Democrats are expected to spend much of their time overseeing both Trump administration officials and companies tied to the administration. Representative Robert Garcia (D-CA), the incoming chair of the House Oversight Committee, posted “LAWYER UP” on social media; incoming Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden (D-OR) posted simply, “Subpoenas.” Bloomberg reports that Democrats have already sent investigative letters to companies and contractors who’ve done business with the administration.
• Cabinet secretaries are expected to face scrutiny as well, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who is already facing an impeachment vote. Once a Democratic Senate majority is in place, such impeachment articles are unlikely to be dismissed quickly, although Hegseth would inevitably be acquitted in a Senate trial. The same is true of any impeachment effort against President Trump should it materialize.
• In turn, some of Democrats’ biggest wins will come from how they now limit the changes Republicans seek. Under divided government, must-pass bills will be the name of the game. To the extent Democrats can reshape policy, it may come as riders on appropriations bills rather than as major, stand-alone policy measures.

What’s the Message? Heading into the midterms, the fight for the 2028 nomination and message was wide open. Now, it’s arguably even wider.

• Over the last week, representatives from every ideological wing of the party have taken credit for Democrats’ success, including progressives celebrating Senate victories in Michigan and Maine; Congressional Hispanic Caucus members celebrating victories across Florida and Texas; and the Blue Dog Coalition touting wins deep in GOP territory. The takeaway for Democrats eyeing a 2028 run: my message resonated in 2026, and it will again in two years.
• Those eyeing a run in the progressive lane, such as Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and Representative Ro Khanna (D-CA), are likely to be among the most emboldened. Michigan’s Senate race was the highest-profile test of the progressive brand in years. Concern ran rampant within other wings of the party (and among DC pundits) that Senator-elect Abdul El-Sayed’s (D-MI) candidacy would put a crucial Senate seat at risk. In the end, El-Sayed ran only two points behind more moderate Governor-elect Jocelyn Benson (D-MI), a point progressive groups have quickly highlighted. The biggest question mark is Ocasio-Cortez, who likely had the most at stake in Michigan’s Senate race given her endorsement of, and fundraising for, El-Sayed.
• Alongside progressives, moderate Democrats are also running on a high after picking up seats in deep red territory on Tuesday. Governor Josh Shapiro (D-PA) is among the most emboldened, having backed candidates who swept four key congressional districts and picked up a trifecta in state government. Governor JD Pritzker (D-IL), who spent tens of millions supporting congressional Democrats across the map, issued a memo outlining his theory of Democratic governance. Governor Andy Beshear (D-KY), who has long expressed interest in a 2028 run, could benefit from his leadership of the Democratic Governors Association given Democrats’ gubernatorial wins. However, he will need to work through existing tension with Latino groups. Senators Mark Kelly (D-AZ) and Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) also stumped for Democrats across the map, both raising their profiles after a legal battle with the Department of Defense.
• Not mapping cleanly into either group are center-left candidates like Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ) and Governor Wes Moore (D-MD). But the night’s biggest proverbial winner could be Senator Jon Ossoff (D-GA), who won his re-election by nearly 20 points. Ossoff is a rising star in the Democratic Party, viewed by both progressives and moderates as a member of their team. Most importantly for him, Keisha Lance Bottoms’ (D-GA) victory in the gubernatorial race would allow her to select his replacement if he runs and wins.
• Getting less attention, but having had an equally successful night, are a trio of Democratic frontrunners. In particular, Governor Gavin Newsom (D-CA) benefits, as his push for a new state congressional map likely added to House Democrats’ margins. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and former Vice President Kamala Harris will also take pride in near sweeps by their endorsed candidates, according to Politico, giving both added goodwill ahead of potential campaign launches.

The States to Watch Over the Next Two Years

2010 in Reverse. Democrats’ major election wins on the state level rival the GOP’s 2010 wave election.

• During former President Barack Obama’s first midterms, Republicans ran up the score on the state level, emerging with control of the governorship and both chambers of the legislature (i.e., a trifecta) in 22 states. This allowed them to advance a conservative policy agenda and control redistricting after the 2010 Census. This year, the shoe is on the other foot, and Democrats can advance policies blocked by divided government in DC and lock in their gains by redrawing maps.
• This year, Democrats swept gubernatorial races in all 2024 battleground states where they were on the ballot, as well as in the redder states of Iowa, Ohio, and Texas. They flipped control of 12 legislative chambers and won trifectas in six states, bringing their trifecta total to 22. Democrats will hold at least 28 governor’s mansions, the first time the party has controlled a majority of governorships since 2010 (Democrats lead in the still-uncalled Alaska and Kansas gubernatorial races). Of the 15 most populous states, 13 will now have Democratic governors.
• Democrats also picked up attorney general (AG) offices in Texas, Georgia, Ohio, Kansas, and Iowa while holding the AG offices in Arizona, Michigan, and Nevada. As AGs increasingly play a bigger role in enforcement and litigation against presidential administrations and key sectors (such as Big Tech), these wins will give Democrats greater power. The Texas AG has traditionally been the most prominent and important Republican state AG office, as seen in lawsuits against former President Joe Biden. Texas AG-elect Nathan Johnson’s (D) win likely leaves Attorney General James Uthmeier (R-FL), who just won his first full term, as the leading AG on the right.
• Key states to watch include Georgia and Texas, major states for data centers where Democrats swept statewide offices, as well as the swing states of Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where Democrats won trifectas.

An Ideological Clash. Democrats’ electoral success on the state and local levels also reveals divisions between moderates and progressives.

• Many Democratic gubernatorial candidates, such as Governors Josh Shapiro (PA) and Katie Hobbs (AZ), and Governors-elect Amy Acton (OH), David Crowley (WI), and Amy Klobuchar (MN), hail from the party’s more moderate wing. With the exception of Acton, each of these governors will also preside over unified Democratic control of their respective state legislatures, thanks to their long coattails.
• While Democrats owe some of their biggest state-level electoral successes to moderates, the party’s insurgent left flank also notched major wins last week. Los Angeles City Council Member Nithya Raman, a democratic socialist in the model of New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, defeated incumbent Mayor Karen Bass for the top office in the nation’s second-most-populous city. In a symbolic victory, Washington, DC Council Member Janeese Lewis George won the DC mayoral election, putting a democratic socialist in charge of the nation’s capital for the first time. Democratic socialists also won mayoral elections in Ann Arbor, MI and Providence, RI.

Share

Share this...

Facebook

Pinterest

Twitter

Linkedin