Cozen Currents: Who Can Follow Trump?

“President Donald Trump’s legacy may ultimately depend on which faction of potential candidates his successor comes from and his willingness to weigh in on that choice.” — Howard Schweitzer, CEO, Cozen O’Connor Public Strategies

The Cozen Lens

• While only six months into President Trump’s second term, the contours of the race to succeed the president are starting to take shape, with his ability to weigh in on his preferred candidate looming large over the contest.
• With an AI Action Plan coming on July 23rd, the Trump administration understands that winning the race for AI will require a lot of necessary relevant infrastructure — namely, the energy to supply data centers.
• The Supreme Court wrapped up its 2024-25 term with an affirmation of the Trump administration’s view of expansive executive power.

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Who is Trump’s Van Buren?

Securing A Presidential Legacy. President Trump has often drawn comparisons between himself and Andrew Jackson, the seventh president. But the comparison could also have significant implications for the race to succeed Trump.

• While Trump has compared himself to many past presidents, the one he sees as being the closest is Jackson. Jackson’s reputation was that of a populist who defied the elites of his day and would go on to rebuild the Democratic Party in his image. Trump has celebrated Jackson’s legacy during both terms, even visiting his birth site on Jackson’s 250th birthday in 2017 and hanging portraits of him in the Oval Office.
• The comparison to Jackson is relevant to the conversation around who will succeed Trump, as Jackson handpicked his successor in part to continue and solidify his legacy. While Trump is a lame duck president, despite his teases of a possible third term, and even if it is not officially underway yet, the race to take up Trump’s legacy is starting to take shape.

Trump’s Potential Heirs Apparent. When looking at potential successors to Trump, the first group that stands out is that which has seen political success following Trumpism, with Vice President JD Vance leading this crowded set of potential candidates.

• If Trump followed Jackson’s model exactly, this would make Vance the presumptive pick, as Jackson selected his vice president, Martin Van Buren, to succeed him. While Trump has declined to explicitly endorse Vance yet, doing so at any point before the primary is well underway would likely bolster Vance’s chances significantly.
• Vance’s position as vice president offers him a platform that other likely contenders do not have, but it will not mean he is without competition for the nomination. Even in Vance’s lane of evangelists of Trumpism, the field is likely to be crowded with Donald Trump Jr., Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO), and members of Trump’s cabinet like Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem all possibly competing for this spot.
• With no incumbent Republican president running and a belief that consolidating Trump’s base could be key to winning the nomination, the competition among these individuals for Trump’s favor is likely to be intense. The goal for these candidates will be to portray themselves as carrying on and securing Trump’s legacy, as Van Buren did for Jackson. The question will be to what extent Trump looks to tip the scales.

Other Slices of the Pie. While a true believer in Trumpism may be the president’s top pick to succeed him, different types of candidates are likely to emerge as contenders for the Republican nomination in 2028 too.

• This group is similar to the Trump believers, but could be considered “MAGA without Trump.” These Republicans often support key aspects of Trump’s reshaping of the Republican Party, but differ on key policy points from the president, such as tariffs. Potential candidates from this category include some who ran in 2024 against Trump like Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) or Senator Tim Scott (R-SC), as well as rising stars such as Senators Tim Cotton (R-AR).
• A third lane is members of the Republican Party who are looking for a pivot after the end of Trump’s term. While being a “never Trump” candidate may not be politically appetizing, some candidates could try to move on from Trump without directly attacking him. Former US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley falls among this group, as would other prominent Republican critics of Trump, such as Governors Chris Sununu (R-NH) and Brian Kemp (R-GA).

Trump Administration Readies AI Action Plan

WH Readies AI Roadmap. The Trump administration is reportedly preparing an AI Action Plan and considering executive actions to boost data centers and meet their power needs.

• President Trump is going full-steam ahead on AI. It’s a top priority for the White House: during his first term, the president declared that “Continued American leadership in AI is of paramount importance to maintaining the economic and national security of the United States.” Energy Secretary Chris Wright is comparing the Manhattan Project to the concerted effort “to win the next race: AI.”
• The new perspective on AI is that firms must be able to run free to promote R&D, prioritizing innovation over safety. Vice President JD Vance devoted his first major policy speech after being sworn in to a warning against excessive regulation of AI. In his executive order on AI, Trump revoked “barriers to AI innovation” imposed by former President Biden and outlined a vision for AI to “promote human flourishing, economic competitiveness, and national security.” The White House proudly touts announcements of investments in data centers and is encouraging as much of them as it can.
• That same January 23rd executive order directed officials to develop an AI Action Plan within 180 days, a deadline that comes due on July 23rd. Reuters reported late last month that the White House is considering making July 23rd an “AI Action Day” with the release of the plan as the centerpiece. Accompanying both the high-profile announcement and the plan itself, Reuters also reported that the administration is planning to release multiple executive orders at the same time. The singular focus of these executive actions would be to try to boost AI, not by supporting it directly but by turbocharging the things that it relies on — data centers and the massive quantities of electricity they consume.

US Readies for Data Centers. Data centers consumed 4.4 percent of all US electricity in 2023 and are expected to grow to between 6.7 and 12 percent of total use by 2028.

• The appetite for more data centers is insatiable. Mentions of “data center” in earning call transcripts in the manufacturing and energy sectors grew five-fold from 2023 to 2024. Eight of the largest cloud data center service providers, including giants like Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft, collectively increased planned capex on data centers and computing resources to $371 billion for 2025, a 44 percent year-over-year increa Data center spending more broadly could reach a trillion dollars within just three years according to PwC.
• The juice to power all that investment is going to have to come from somewhere. Deloitte published a report last month that power demand from AI data centers specifically could grow more than thirty-fold by 2035. This is having an impact on both electricity prices and grid reliability. “Data centers could overwhelm the grids if they chose to,” says the president of the largest grid’s market monitor. A standard home that spent $30 on 1,000 kilowatt hours five years ago would have paid $164 on average this February.
• Two factors compound the situation even further: data centers aren’t equally spread throughout the country and the centers themselves represent large single power draws. About 80 percent of the 2023 data center load was concentrated in 15 states, primarily Virginia and Texas. Meta has begun construction of a giant campus in Louisiana planned to cost $10 billion when done. Microsoft and OpenAI are looking into the possibility of a $100 billion mega-facility.
• While the executive orders are still in the process of being crafted, some key initiatives are being contemplated. One idea is offering up federal land for centers to build so as to minimize siting difficulties; another is to move up more developed power generation projects in the queue to be connected to the grid. Lastly, the administration is considering unveiling a nationwide Clean Water Act permit, rather than requiring firms to apply as needed on a state-by-state basis. The president could share more details on his policy at an AI and energy event in Pennsylvania that he is slated to attend on July 15th hosted by Senator Dave McCormick (R-PA).

Looking Back on the 2024-25 SCOTUS Term

Curtains Down on SCOTUS. The Supreme Court (SCOTUS) has concluded its 2024-2025 term.

• As the Court heads into summer recess, it is clear that the 6-3 conservative majority has left its mark on legal questions across a range of issues. In a highly anticipated free speech case, the conservative majority upheld a Texas law requiring adult websites to verify the age of their users, a decision that could provide greater momentum for age verification proposals from lawmakers on the state and federal levels.
• Turning to another notable case of the term, the conservative majority – joined by liberal Justice Elena Kagan – decided in Diamond Alternative Energy LLC v. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) that fuel producers have the constitutional standing to challenge the EPA’s approval of California regulations regarding electric and gasoline-powered vehicle manufacturing, aligning with the Trump administration’s targeting of the Golden State’s ability to write tougher environmental rules. Similarly, the Court limited the EPA’s authority in relation to the Clean Water Act in a case for the city of San Francisco.
• While the Court’s conservative majority reigned supreme during this term, the conservative-liberal split was not apparent in all cases. In Federal Communications Commission (FCC) v. Consumers’ Research, a majority across ideological lines upheld the FCC’s Universal Service Fund (USF), the agency’s mechanism for supporting programs to expand access to telecommunications services. The decision reaffirmed the FCC’s authority to collect funds and delegate it to the USF’s operator, deviating from a recent trend of decisions that have narrowed the authority of federal agencies.

SCOTUS and the Executive Branch. The Court’s conservative justices demonstrated a belief in broad executive power.

• In a case challenging President Trump’s executive order on birthright citizenship, the conservative majority significantly limited federal judges’ capacity to issue nationwide injunctions blocking executive branch actions. The justices held that the judiciary can only provide relief to the specific people who sued and a class-action lawsuit would be necessary for a wider ruling. Nationwide injunctions thwarted Biden administration actions as well but have been increasingly imposed during the first six months of Trump’s second term. The case makes it more difficult for Trump opponents to challenge the president’s expansive use of executive power.
• The Court’s decision does not necessarily lead to a full legal reprieve for Trump. More litigation against the Trump administration from individuals and organizations is likely in the absence of nationwide injunctions, though the impact of individual cases is expected to be smaller. In addition, the importance of state attorneys general (AGs) in legal battles over executive actions by Trump and future presidents may also become even more relevant. The Supreme Court clarified that state AGs could still seek nationwide injunctions under certain conditions.
• The ruling on nationwide injunctions is not the only instance of SCOTUS affirming executive power. The Court frequently sided with Trump in requests for emergency action outside its traditional process via the expedited procedure that some have called the “shadow docket.” For example, in late May, the conservative majority empowered the administration to fire the heads of two independent agencies, the National Labor Relations Board NLRB and the Merit Systems Protection Board. Though not a final decision, SCOTUS also gave Trump an early win on a signature issue when the Court declined requests from a family-owned toy company to speed up its consideration of Trump’s tariffs, punting evaluation of the tariffs’ legality until after the justices return for oral argument once its new term begins in October.

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