Minnesota Minute: Minnesota 2025 Election Preview

MN 2025 Election Preview 

In Minnesota, the November 4th Election Day will determine control of the state’s two biggest cities, Minneapolis and Saint Paul, and fill two vacant State Senate seats. The election has the potential to be highly consequential and shift in the political leanings of leadership in the metropolitan core.

Senate

November 4th is the scheduled Special Election date to fill the Minnesota Senate seats left vacant by the death of former Senate Bruce Andeson (R-Buffalo) and by the resignation of Senator Nicole Mitchell (DFL-Woodbury) following a felony conviction for burglary. Both of these seats are considered safe and an upset is very unlikely.

Republican Michael Holstrom is expected to win the race in Senate District 29, which includes exurban and rural communities north of MSP. Holstrom’s platform focuses on right to life, fiscal responsibility, public safety, protecting the 2nd Amendment, and government transparency. The Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) candidate is Louis McNutt, a heavy equipment mechanic for the Minnesota Department of Transportation and a union member of AFSCME Local 221.

In Senate District 47, the DFL candidate is current Representative Amanda Hemmingsen-Jaeger (DFL-Woodbury) , who has represented the western half of the district in the House of Representatives since 2023. Hemmingsen-Jaeger is a supporter of the major DFL-led legislative initiatives including Paid Family and Medical Leave, codifying abortion rights, and clean energy mandates. She is being challenged by Republican Dwight Dorau, a retired Air Force Colonel.

 Minneapolis

The Minneapolis political leadership is made up of all Democratic elected officials – the Mayor and all 13 City Council members – and all of them will be on the ballot. Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) is used in all municipal races so voters will rank candidates in order of preference and if there is not one candidate that receives majority of the vote, balloting goes into multiple rounds until a single candidate has majority support.

This election has the ability to alter the City’s existing political landscape either towards a government made up of more democratically moderate or progressive elected officials. The moderate incumbent Mayor, Jacob Frey, is running for a third term against three progressive opponents, State Senator Omar Fateh, Rev. Dr. DeWayne Davis, and Jazz Hampton.

Mayor Frey’s three opponents have banded together to use Ranked Choice Voting to their advantage with an “anyone but Frey” campaign.  Their tactic encourages voters to omit Mayor Frey from their ballot list of candidates and focus on ranking the incumbent’s three opponents. The reigning favorite is still Mayor Frey despite his opponents’ efforts; although State Sen. Fateh is gaining the most momentum due to support from the Democratic Socialist of America (DSA)-Twin Cities chapter and progressive-aligned groups and service unions.

All 13 seats on the Minneapolis City Council are members of the DFL; however, they vastly range in ideology. Four council members are moderates and align with Mayor Frey while nine seats are held by progressive council members. The progressive Council members hold a veto-proof majority and are often united on many issues and stand in opposition to Mayor Frey’s positions. This election presents the opportunity to turn the Council majority over to the more moderate candidates, leading to the inability for the progressive members to veto mayoral decisions. The races to watch that will determine the balance of power are:

•         Ward 2: Robin Wonsley (incumbent) vs. Shelley Madore
•         Ward 5 (open) Pearll Warren vs. Ethrophic Burnett
•         Ward 7: Katie Cashman (incumbent) vs. Elizabeth Shaffer
•         Ward 10: Aisha Chughtai (incumbent) vs. Lydia Millard
•         Ward 12: Aurin Chowdhury (incumbent) vs. Becka Thompson

Saint Paul

The 2025 Saint Paul municipal elections will decide the next mayor of Saint Paul. Unlike Minneapolis, the City Council is not up for election until 2028. There are five mayoral candidates on the ballot for Saint Paul Mayor, though only two are considered viable: incumbent Mayor Melvin Carter and State Representative Kaohly Her.

Mayor Melvin Carter was first elected in 2017 as the first Black Mayor of Saint Paul and is now seeking a third term. Mayor Carter has championed many progressive initiatives while mayor but his administration has faced criticism for rising property taxes and slow economic recovery in the City’s downtown. His primary challenger is State Representative Kaohly Vang Her, who has been in the Minnesota House since 2018. Though Her’s policy platform is not much different than Carter’s, she is viewed as a “change candidate” and is running with the backing of several high-profile political insiders that are upset with Carter’s perceived lack of vision for revitalization and decreasing property taxes.

Her announced her campaign this August and was very late to the game and gave Carter a big head start on fundraising, getting influential endorsements, and creating a ground game. Her is picking up steam as her message of moderate collaboration is resonating with voters that feel unmoved by a third Carter term.

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