New York Note: Council Legislation and Budget, CPS Post-Primary Day Webinar Insights

NYC Council Passes and Introduces Legislation

Last Tuesday, the New York City Council passed several pieces of legislation, including measures related to background check requirements and reporting for child care providers, employees, and volunteers; the establishment of an office of child care and early childhood education to support universal no-cost child care planning and implementation; financial assistance for small retail businesses purchasing security system technology; and the creation of a rental assistance voucher program. The Council also introduced legislation, among other measures, to amend requirements for battery charging areas for powered mobility devices, require annual reporting on algorithmic tools approved for use in schools, and mandate a study on the effects of tourism on DUMBO. All passed and introduced bills are available here.

Additionally, the Council voted to approve a $125.8 billion Fiscal Year 2027 budget. The FY27 budget includes the largest expense budget and capital commitment in Council history. The agreement adds $350 million to the City’s General Reserve and includes funding for housing and homelessness prevention, libraries, parks, Fair Fares, mental health programs, free swimming instruction, college savings accounts for public school kindergarteners, immigrant legal services, and 9/11-related public health records and reporting. The budget also includes expansions of the NYC Kids RISE college savings account program, Fair Fares, rental assistance access, and immigration legal services, as well as funding restorations for cultural institutions, libraries, and parks. See here for the Mayor’s official budget press release.

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On Tuesday, June 30th, the Cozen O’Connor Public Strategies New York team held a primary election day debrief. A summary of key insights from our team are below.

Congressional Races

NY-10 was the first Congressional race called, just minutes after polls closed, with Brad Lander, former NYC Comptroller and mayoral candidate, defeating two-term incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman in a landslide. The race in lower Manhattan and parts of western Brooklyn was ultimately framed largely as a referendum on Democrats’ positions on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Lander won 66% of the vote, despite his opponent’s active role in Washington positioning himself as a fighter against the Trump administration. Meanwhile, in the Bronx, incumbent Rep. Richie Torres, an outspoken supporter of Israel, won his primary in a landslide. Positions on Israel appeared to motivate voters in both districts, though the outcomes differed based on each district’s electorate. These results indicate that New York City’s electorate is not monolithic and reflect broader divisions within the Democratic Party that Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries will need to navigate in November.

In NY-7, freshman Assembly Member Claire Valdez defeated Brooklyn Borough President Antonyo Raynoso. This race similarly underscored broader divisions within the Democratic Party, with Reynoso backed by the Working Families Party, labor unions, and incumbent Rep. Nydia Velázquez, while Valdez was endorsed by Mayor Mamdani and the New York City Democratic Socialists of America (NYC-DSA). This race was highly contentious, highlighting tensions between the progressive and socialist wings of the Democratic Party and raising questions as to how these factions will coordinate on national issues. Both NY-10 and NY-7 ultimately served as a testament to the growing influence of the DSA and the significant inroads it has made in key districts.

Statewide Races

Statewide, incumbency proved decisive. Governor Kathy Hochul, positioned as a moderate, faced no primary challenger, reflecting a strong and strategic approach due to her mutually beneficial alignment with Mayor Mamdani. Similarly, Attorney General Letitia (Tish) James did not face a primary challenger. In the Comptroller’s race, 5-term incumbent Thomas DiNapoli secured approximately 65% of the vote against two challengers, his first contested primary since taking office nearly two decades ago, benefiting from both labor support and incumbency.

Despite currently maintaining a 20% lead over the GOP nominee Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, Governor Kathy Hochul still faces a competitive race in November, which will test President Trump’s influence statewide and voter response to a leftward-shifting legislature.

Albany Legislature

Across Assembly and State Senate races, several incumbent losses reflected a continued leftward shift within the state legislature. With approximately 15 members of the Assembly aligned with the DSA platform priorities, the socialist bloc is likely to exert influence on leadership and issue prioritization, including pressure on Speaker Carl Heastie. Notable outcomes, including the defeats of incumbent Assemblymembers Stefani Zinerman and Erik Dilan, were not entirely unexpected amid the increase of gentrification within their districts. In Dilan’s case, polling data shows he maintained a consistent voter base compared to the previous cycle. However, his DSA-backed challenger, Christian Celeste Tate, significantly increased turnout, suggesting Dilan held less appeal with newer voters in a changing neighborhood. These results underscore the importance for incumbents to expand their base as district demographics evolve. For example, Assemblymember Jordan Wright, the sole incumbent primaried by a DSA candidate to keep his seat, demonstrated an ability to adapt and maintain support amid similar shifts.

In Syracuse, the defeat of incumbent Assemblymember William Magnarelli by his Democratic-Socialist opponent, Onondaga County Legislator Maurice “Mo” Brown, suggests that growing appeal of socialist-aligned candidates is not confined to New York City.

The Endorsement Effect

Endorsements, particularly from Mayor Mamdani, played a significant role in shaping primary outcomes. On the heels of his popular mayoral campaign, Mamdani energized voter bases with his vocal and highly visible approach to backing candidates through appearances, social media, and campaign engagement, contributing to an undefeated slate of endorsed candidates. His support proved especially impactful among newer voters, most notably in Claire Valdez’s victory. Mamdani also exercised influence through strategic “non-endorsements,” including in the governor’s race with Gov. Hochul’s former challenger Lt. Governor Antonio Delgado, and by swaying Chi Ossé away from opposing Minority Leader Jeffries. In partnership with the NYC-DSA, Mamdani was an impactful force in challenging candidates from traditional progressives to democratic establishment powerbrokers.

More broadly, these dynamics reflect a shift in the role of endorsements, as traditional party and establishment figures appear to carry less weight than in previous cycles.  Notably, campaign strategies that leverage grassroots mobilization and effective use of media proved to be successful.

NYC FY27 Budget and Speaker Menin

As Mayor Mamdani’s sweeping success on primary day demonstrated the breadth of his political power and influence, Speaker Julie Menin has shown an ability not only to serve as a counterbalance, but to unify council members across political divisions to negotiate effectively with the administration. In the final stages of budget negotiations, this effective coalition-building was a testament to Menin’s leadership and enabled the Council to advance its priorities while preserving its limited but essential discretionary funding for district and citywide services. At the Council’s budget press conference, Menin framed the process pragmatically, emphasizing that “budgets are not ideological documents,” with negotiations reflecting a balancing of priorities rather than strict alignment with any single faction, particularly when it comes to delivering services to New Yorkers through programs like NYFHEPS. However, Primary Day outcomes may heighten tensions as shifting priorities in Albany will shape policy debates and are more likely to translate into action.

Looking Ahead: Contested Congressional Seats in the General Election

In NY-17, a swing district in the lower Hudson Valley, Democrat Cait Conley won the contested primary and she will face Republican incumbent Rep. Mike Lawler in November. The race may come down to Lawler’s response to recent federal decisions regarding Temporary Protected Status as it affects the local Haitian population, with Lawler at times breaking from the White House as he engages with his constituents.

In NY-18, which encompasses Orange County and Dutchess County, Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan will face Republican businesswoman Jackie Auringer with the advantage of incumbency and a track record of outperforming expectations, though the GOP is expected to compete aggressively in this toss-up seat.

In NY-4 on Long Island, Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen will face Republican nominee Receiver of Taxes for the Town of Hempstead Jeanine Driscoll in a district that has supported Republican county leadership, requiring Rep. Gillen to carefully balance national party positions with local voter preferences.

With the party in the White House historically more likely to lose congressional seats, New York’s competitive swing districts are poised to play a significant role in determining control of the House.

Looking Ahead: 2028 Presidential Primary

President Trump is likely to maintain significant influence over the Republican Party including its next nominee, who is expected to emerge from the MAGA wing. On the Democratic side, the path forward is less defined. Historically, many successful Democratic presidential candidates – such as Presidents Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama – have been categorized as outsiders rather than establishment figures, with Joe Biden a notable exception. That pattern has prompted growing attention to candidates who position themselves outside traditional party structures. From a New York perspective, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez stands out as a potential contender for either the presidency or the senate, as she embodies a well-liked, national, and “outsider” profile and aligns politically with the DSA. Other figures, including Wes Moore, Mark Kelly, Andy Beshear, Gretchen Whitmer, and emerging candidates like John Ossoff and James Talarico, illustrate the breadth of a Democratic bench that is increasingly defined by candidates seeking to distinguish themselves from the party establishment. While more familiar national figures remain in the conversation, there is a clear appetite for newer voices, setting the stage for a competitive and ideologically dynamic lead-up to 2028.

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