Cozen Currents: Candidates Still Matter

“Democrats enjoy the benefit of a favorable political environment heading into this fall’s midterm elections. Nevertheless, to regain control of the Senate, they will have to nearly sweep the almost dozen competitive races that will turn more on the individual candidates in each contest than the national political mood.” — Howard Schweitzer, CEO, Cozen O’Connor Public Strategies

The Cozen Lens

• Faced with a Senate map that at least partially insulates the GOP majority from a Democratic-leaning midterm environment, Democrats must go on offense deep in GOP territory to flip control of the Senate.
• If Democrats don’t win enough of the more competitive races, they’ll need to pick up seats in the more challenging states of Texas and Iowa.
• On top of it all, Democrats must play perfect defense in four vulnerable seats, ranging from the Rust Belt to the South. All but one of which features an open race, and two with competitive primaries.

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Democrats’ Most Likely Path to a Majority

The GOP’s Built-in Advantage. The Cook Political Report rates only 11 of the 35 Senate races this year as competitive, giving Democrats a narrow path to net the four seats necessary to take control of the chamber.

• In the House, every seat is up for re-election each cycle, making control of the chamber highly correlated with the national political environment. By contrast, the Senate’s staggered election cycle can insulate the party in power from the full ramifications of a disadvantageous political environment. Moreover, in an increasingly polarized political environment, Democrats face a greater structural disadvantage in the upper chamber as there are more less populous and rural red states than blue states and each state equally has two senators.
• This year, the limited number of Senate races, particularly in states favorable to Democrats, places a clear floor on the GOP’s potential losses despite an environment that increasingly favors Democrats. According to Cook Political Report ratings, among seats not up for re-election and those rated “Solid Republican,” the GOP enters the midterm cycle likely to retain at least 46 Senate seats. For Democrats, that number is 43.
• Despite the GOP’s favorable map, polling of both the national environment and of individual Senate races points toward Democrats making gains this fall. Political forecasters are projecting a net one- to three-seat Democratic gain in the Senate this cycle. Prediction markets are more bullish, forecasting a roughly four-seat gain — leaving a Democratic Senate majority at about even odds. Regardless of the median projection, exactly how successful Democrats will be this cycle will be determined state by state. The Democrats will need to lock up its handful of easy pickup opportunities while simultaneously making gains in territory friendly to the GOP.

The Must Win Races. If Democrats are to secure a Senate majority, they must win the two toss-up races in North Carolina and Maine, the party’s best pickup opportunities. Without them, a majority would likely be out of reach.

• By polling, North Carolina is the Democrats’ best pickup opportunity of the cycle. Republican Senator Thom Tillis’ decision to retire created an open-seat race in a state that has trended toward Democrats in recent years. While the state still leans slightly toward the GOP — President Trump won it by about four points in 2024 — Democrats landed one of their top recruits of the cycle in former Governor Roy Cooper. Cooper is facing off against former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley, who is less known statewide despite a Trump endorsement. Polls show Cooper leading Whatley by an average of about nine points. While Whatley has room to grow his name recognition, Cooper retains a positive favorability rating paired with near universal name ID. Whatley is also playing catch-up when it comes to fundraising.
• Only second to North Carolina in its importance to the Senate map is Maine. There, Democrats are once again aiming to beat Senator Susan Collins, the only GOP senator up for re-election in a state Democrats won in 2024. While Collins is a notoriously strong incumbent, the political environment this year, combined with the state’s partisan lean, puts her at a disadvantage. Still, presumptive Democratic nominee Graham Platner is an oysterman with no political experience and an increasing amount of personal baggage. Platner continues to lead in the race’s polling, and he’s posted strong fundraising numbers. However, Collins has a significant war chest and much deeper campaign experience.

The Next Frontier. After North Carolina and Maine, Democrats will need to make gains in solid GOP territory to win a Senate majority, beginning with races in Ohio and Alaska.

• Previously considered a swing state, Ohio now leans solidly toward the GOP, handing President Trump a roughly 11-point victory in 2024. Still, the state has many working-class white voters whom Democrats once appealed to. This year, Democrats landed a top recruit in former Senator Sherrod Brown, who has experience appealing to just that group. Brown is facing off against Senator Jon Husted, a former lieutenant governor who was appointed to his current Senate seat. Husted outran the average GOP candidate in his lieutenant governor race, but he lacks the same level of campaign experience as Collins, and polls show him leading Brown by only about two points. Brown also has a significant cash advantage, having outraised Husted to begin the year.
• Alongside Ohio, among Democrats’ targets is Alaska, where former Representative Mary Peltola is challenging GOP Senator Dan Sullivan. Peltola is another major recruitment victory for Senate Democrats, having been “the first Alaska Democrat to win a full House term since 1970,” according to Politico. While Alaska is as GOP-leaning as, if not more so than, Ohio, its unique electorate and ranked-choice voting system give Democrats reason to believe that Peltola can replicate her prior success in a more favorable year. Polls of the race have been sparse, but they’ve found Peltola leading Sullivan by about four points on average. Peltola also began the year by setting a fundraising record for the state.

The Reach States

A Blue Texas? If Democrats don’t win enough of the more competitive races, they’ll have to go on offense in tougher territory and the Lone Star State’s race is attracting a lot of attention.

• State Attorney General Ken Paxton’s victory over Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff puts the seat more in play for Democrats given that Paxton is seen as a weaker general election candidate. Democrats have previously tried and failed to turn Texas blue. In 2018, former Representative Beto O’Rourke came within three percentage points of defeating Senator Ted Cruz in another politically strong year for Democrats.
• State Representative James Talarico, the Democratic nominee, has an uphill road. President Trump won Texas by nearly 14 percentage points. To overcome this margin, Talarico must win over Trump voters, including the working-class voters who have fled the Democratic Party in recent years. The race will be a test of whether Trump’s gains with Hispanic voters in 2024 endure for Republicans when the president isn’t on the ballot. The Pew Research Center found last month that Trump’s approval among Hispanic voters who pulled the lever for him in the last election has fallen to 66 percent, a steeper decline than among non-Hispanic Trump 2024 voters.
• Even if Talarico doesn’t win, a more competitive Texas race could force Republicans to devote more resources to the Lone Star State, which could mean less spending going to support GOP candidates in other competitive races.

The Great Plains. Iowa and Nebraska also present opportunities to chip away at the GOP’s Senate majority.

• Won by former President Obama in both of his campaigns, Iowa has trended rightward in recent years. The Hawkeye State voted for Trump in 2024 by 13 percentage points. The impact of tariffs and high fertilizer prices in the wake of the Iran conflict have given Democrats hope for a comeback. Moderate state Representative Josh Turek (D), who represents a district won by Trump, defeated a more progressive rival to clinch the Democratic nomination last week. His opponent will be Representative Ashley Hinson, who said at a recent campaign event that the Iran conflict risked becoming a “political liability.”
• In Nebraska, Democrats have adopted an unconventional strategy: the party’s nominee, Cindy Burbank, has said that she would drop out if she didn’t see a path to victory. This would clear the race for populist independent candidate Dan Osborn to challenge GOP Senator Pete Ricketts head-on. A former union leader, Osborn challenged Senator Deb Fischer in 2024 and lost by nearly seven percentage points, even as Trump carried the state by over 20 points. Osborn’s independent candidacy offers a potential playbook for states where the Democratic brand has become so unpopular where candidates may need to run outside the party to compete. Osborn has said that he would not caucus with either of the two major parties if elected. This would still mean one fewer seat for Republicans, which would help Democrats in the battle for Senate control.

Prevent Defense

Upper Midwest Presents Top GOP Targets. The Rust Belt features not one but two vulnerable Democratic seats, both open races with competitive primaries.

• Losing even a single currently held Democratic Senate seat effectively puts the party’s hopes of winning the majority on ice. Starting in the red means having to win yet another of the reach seats described above, which represents a serious lift. However, given the correlations in political performance across states, it’s unlikely that Democrats will have a night that gives them a state like Iowa while simultaneously losing one of the four races described below. Although Democrats have a favorable national environment at their back, the cycle still features four vulnerable races for them, where victory cannot be taken as a given.
• Perhaps the single most vulnerable seat is retiring Senator Gary Peters’ seat in Michigan, a state President Trump has won twice (including in 2024). Republicans have cleared the path for former Representative Mike Rogers, who came within less than 20,000 votes of winning a different Senate seat in Michigan in 2024. By contrast, the Democratic primary features three significant candidates: the Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT)-backed public health official Abdul El-Sayed, establishment favorite Representative Haley Stevens, and state Senator Mallory McMorrow, whose ideology falls somewhere in between. The last week has seen El-Sayed secure a key endorsement from the United Auto Workers union, while Stevens has earned the private backing of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY). Polling shows these two neck-and-neck, with McMorrow not too far behind. However, prediction markets now say El-Sayed has around a 70 percent chance to win the primary — about the same odds Democrats have on holding on to the seat at all.
• There’s also Minnesota, a persistent target for Republicans, where they consistently find themselves just a few points short of success. Once again, the National Republican Senate Committee secured their preferred candidate, clearing the way for them in the process: former National Football League broadcaster Michele Tafoya. While politically inexperienced, she also has no record to attack and comes with name ID and natural media savvy. On the Democratic side, moderate Representative Angie Craig is competing against the progressive lieutenant governor, Peggy Flanagan, the latter who has been picking up endorsements while the former has been reeling in fundraising. Republicans would rather face the latter, and prediction markets overwhelmingly think they’re going to get it. Nevertheless, the GOP faces an uphill battle in a state that has reliably weathered red advances before.

Peaches and Maple Syrup. Democrats must also defend two other presidential battleground states: Georgia and an open seat in New Hampshire.

• Georgia is the other Democratic-held seat up for election in a state Trump won in 2024, though this is the contest that concerns them less. That’s in large part because, at long last, a Democratic incumbent is defending his own seat: Senator Jon Ossoff, whom the party could hardly be happier with. In contrast, the GOP primary featured a competitive three-way primary that still isn’t over; with no candidate earning more than 50 percent of the vote, the final victor will be crowned in a June 16th runoff. Representative Mike Collins finished ahead of former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley, the son of beloved Georgia football coach Vince Dooley. Polling and prediction markets both expect Collins to prevail. Hypothetical polling has consistently pegged Ossoff as leading either matchup.
• Then there’s the ever-idiosyncratic New Hampshire, where independent voters have simultaneously gone blue in presidential elections while electing Republican governors and supermajorities in the state legislature. Both sides have their ideal picks: Representative Chris Pappas (D) vs. former Senator John E. Sununu (R). While some of the (limited) polling puts the two within the margin of error, the aggregate view gives Pappas a slight advantage, and Sununu faces a political environment that is favorable to Democrats.

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