Cozen Currents: A Tale of Two Primaries

“In just three weeks, the midterm elections will quickly move into the rearview mirror and the political focus will shift to the 2028 presidential election. The Democratic primary is poised to be a fractious, prolonged battle while the GOP primary is looking more like a coronation.” — Howard Schweitzer, CEO, Cozen O’Connor Public Strategies

The Cozen Lens

• Vice President JD Vance has a key advantage over other potential contenders for his party’s nomination for the White House.
• By contrast, the conversation over possible Democratic presidential candidates is so wide that consensus may take a long time to emerge.
• The Senate’s unanimous passage of the Taxpayer Assistance and Service Act last month provides tax writers with a possible base for a year-end tax package. However, the legislation will need to compete for time with must-pass spending legislation and a national defense policy bill on a crowded lame-duck calendar.

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Vance’s Big 2028 Advantage

Trump as Lame Duck. The day after the midterms marks the unofficial start of the 2028 presidential election cycle and President Donald Trump’s unofficial status as a lame duck.

• The president isn’t eager to acknowledge his departure from the political stage. Though he’s not eligible for another term, Trump’s musings about another run freeze out discussion of a successor. Potential candidates for the 2028 GOP presidential nomination have an incentive not to announce bids too early or risk making an enemy of the president.

• Members of the Trump administration who could be contenders for the nomination, such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, are particularly in a bind. Trump might not take kindly to Rubio leaving the Cabinet to launch a presidential campaign until he eventually comes around to the idea that his presidency will come to a close.

Vance in Pole Position. Vice President Vance has the advantage of being Trump’s heir apparent.

• As the sitting VP and Trump’s handpicked number-two, Vance does not have to leave his position to run and can more easily oversee a campaign-in-waiting without appearing disloyal to the president. Because he doesn’t have to worry as much about antagonizing Trump as potential rivals for the nomination, he already has a head start.

• In today’s world, launching a presidential campaign early is essential to build a robust campaign infrastructure, raise enough money, and reach voters. A candidate who starts too late could face challenges similar to those of former Vice President Kamala Harris, who effectively became the de facto Democratic nominee just 107 days before Election Day when former President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed her.

An Edge Over Rivals. The 2028 GOP presidential nomination likely won’t be uncontested but Vance is the favorite.

• While Rubio has attracted the most presidential buzz, other Trump Cabinet officials such as Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could make a play for the nomination. Senators such as Ted Cruz (R-TX), who came in second in the 2016 Republican presidential primary, Josh Hawley (R-MO), and Tom Cotton (R-AR) are showing interest. Outgoing Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) might want another bite at the apple.

• After sharing a ticket with Trump, Vance has wide name recognition and a close affiliation with the president, the undisputed leader of the GOP. History is on his side. In recent decades, VPs, particularly sitting VPs, who run for their party’s nominations have a strong record of getting it. On the Republican side, Presidents Richard Nixon and George H.W. Bush both won the nomination after previously serving as VP.

• Moreover, Vance’s role as a campaign surrogate for Republicans in the midterm elections helps to raise his political profile further and his role as finance chair of the Republican National Committee gives him a clear leg up in fundraising.

Democrats’ Crowded 2028 Field

Open Season. In contrast to the GOP field, the 2028 Democratic presidential primary is looking wide open.

• The party is unpopular with voters overall, and many fellow Democrats disapprove, too. While it was clear from the onset that Democrats valued electability above all else in 2020, the party doesn’t seem to know what it wants this time around. Even if they do well in the midterms, 85 percent of those supporting Democratic candidates view it as a vote against the president, not for anything in particular. After having lost with the moderate choice in 2016 and 2024, and with former President Joe Biden’s term leaving a sour taste in their mouths, many Democrats don’t see the benefit in supposedly playing it safe anymore. This year has seen a wide range of characters emerge from primaries, united more by perceived authenticity and a willingness to fight than by progressive or moderate ideology — though the far-left surely has made its greatest strides yet. Supposed moderates who are young, populist, and anti-establishment are having no trouble winning over left-leaning voters under the right circumstances. Many of the most-discussed candidates are hard to slot into a single box.

• Several shadow campaigns are already underway, each looking different depending on who is running them, but the race as a whole remains unclear. Prediction markets identify no less than eight separate candidates they think have a greater than three percent shot of capturing the nomination. Nationally, eight candidates also have more than three percent support in the polls. And it’s not like there’s a single frontrunner and a bunch of bottom-feeders; no candidate has more than a 17 percent chance of winning or polls more than 25 percent nationally. Of the (admittedly limited) state-level polling, there are five people each leading in at least one. It’s also important to note that much of what polls this early capture is just name recognition. That’s why former Vice President Kamala Harris’ current ten-point lead is less solid than it looks.

Two Nights of Crowded Debate Stages. With the race looking so open, it could take a while for a consensus to emerge. Democrats shouldn’t worry, though — there’s no evidence divisive primaries are necessarily bad for electoral success.

• The Democratic Party has a lot of soul-searching to do. The only recently finalized primary calendar, and its six early states, may prolong that search. Per the party chair, “Our 2028 nominee, whoever they are, will have to earn the support across the full breadth of America: every region, every demographic, every generation, every economic station in life.” The race kicks off in South Carolina (with its heavily Black primary electorate), then Nevada (with many Hispanic/Latino voters), New Hampshire (with rural Whites), New Mexico (with a large American Indian population), Michigan (Midwestern union voters and non-college-educated Whites), and finally Virginia. With different ideological, regional, and demographic alliances, some may present independent bases of support for certain candidates, prompting them to stay in longer than they otherwise would, waiting for the boost from “their” state. In 2020, Pete Buttigieg and Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) split Iowa and New Hampshire, Sanders won Nevada, and Biden romped in South Carolina. Since then, primaries have also been proportional, with candidates who earn more than 15 percent of the vote receiving a commensurate share of the delegates. By contrast, in the Republican primary, some states are winner-take-all, while others allocate delegates proportionally. Many proportional states impose a higher threshold to earn delegates or revert to winner-take-all if anyone gets more than half the vote, producing more lopsided results for winners.

• There’s no doubt the party has major fissures, however, crowded or closely fought presidential primaries aren’t necessarily predictive of general election success or failure. Crowded fields did not hinder either Donald Trump in 2016 or Biden in 2020, although contrasting examples appear in Mitt Romney in 2012 and George McGovern in 1972. Barack Obama won resoundingly after narrowly defeating Hillary Clinton in the 2008 primary, while Walter Mondale collapsed after the same thing happened in 1984. In each case, even if the primary played a part, many other factors shaped the ultimate result.

What Could Be in a Year-End Tax Deal

A Tax Vehicle Emerges. Congress has a long history of trying to clear tax extenders and other miscellaneous tax items at the end of a session, and Senate tax writers hope they now have a starting point to do exactly that.

• The Senate passed the Senate Finance Committee’s Taxpayer Assistance and Service Act by unanimous consent late last month, one of the chamber’s final actions before lawmakers left for the October recess. The bill would streamline IRS customer service and set new standards and penalties for return preparers. It would also provide relief for Americans abroad, hostages, whistleblowers, and small businesses. The House has yet to take up the legislation; instead, the House Ways and Means Committee advanced a narrower set of tax administration bills over the last two years.

• Despite the different approaches taken by the House and Senate, tax writers and a range of outside groups hope the tax administration bill can serve as the base for a bipartisan, catch-all tax package. Several tax bills introduced this Congress are looking for a vehicle, and House Ways and Means Committee staff suggested this summer that the committee had an “appetite” for a bipartisan, end-of-year tax package. In his remarks following passage of the tax administration bill, Senate Finance Committee Chair Mike Crapo (R-ID) said he “looks forward to advancing these commonsense reforms across the finish line this Congress.”

• Still, lawmakers are trying to be realistic about what can get done this Congress, with only five weeks of session remaining after the midterms. The tax administration bill has two major advantages over other policies in the mix – broad bipartisan support and no price tag. That positions tax administration as a policy the House could move in isolation on the House floor. Government funding, which needs to be addressed by December 11th, as well as the annual defense policy bill, are expected to take priority during the “lame duck.”

Candidates for Inclusion in a Tax Package. With many tax observers hopeful a larger package comes together, it is important to recognize that other tax provisions vying to join the package differ widely in cost and complexity, which could shape how easily each one fits into a final deal.

• Among the big-ticket items some lawmakers hope to include in a tax package is the recently introduced film production credit, part of a bill that would “create a transferable federal tax credit equal to 20% of U.S.-resident labor costs for productions with at least $1 million in qualifying expenditures and at least 75% of their principal photography days in the country,” according to Politico. The tax credit is a priority of President Trump, as well as a bipartisan group of California lawmakers, among others. The cost of this relatively new proposal is unknown. Similarly, Crapo and Senate Finance Committee Ranking Member Ron Wyden (R-OR) called for an extension of the CHIPS Act’s Advanced Manufacturing Investment Credit this summer, which is set to expire at the end of the year. House lawmakers are also pushing to reverse the One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s changes to the gambling loss deduction. Each measure comes with a price tag in the billions, though, creating a hurdle that must be overcome for inclusion in a larger package.

• A separate major tax initiative House tax writers hope to include in a potential end-of-year package is the Ways and Means Committee’s crypto tax bill. The legislation, which advanced out of committee last month with bipartisan support, would extend wash-sale, constructive-sale, and stock-lending rules to digital assets, among other changes. Still, the Senate Finance Committee has yet to mark up its own measure, and Crapo told Politico last month his committee might change the House’s bill, a process that could delay progress. This legislation actually raises revenue, which helps its case for inclusion at the end of the year, but it does not have the same bipartisan, bicameral buy in that the tax administration bill does.

• A handful of smaller, less costly items could be among the easiest to fold into the tax package should it come together. Those include long-pending technical corrections to the SECURE 2.0 retirement law, something Ways and Means Committee staff highlighted in their remarks this summer. A separate, recently introduced bicameral, bipartisan bill would amend Section 162(m) to create tax parity between publicly traded and privately held sports teams. And a House-passed Taiwan double-tax relief bill is also in the conversation.

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