Cozen Currents: Your Election Night Viewing Guide

“While the full midterm results may not be known for days or even weeks, a few races in each chamber will serve as canaries in the coal mine this evening as to whether a blue wave is forming and, if so, how big it could be.” — Howard Schweitzer, CEO, Cozen O’Connor Public Strategies

The Cozen Lens

• The first signal of the Senate’s direction tonight will come in the 7:00–8:00 p.m. ET hour when polls close in Florida, South Carolina, Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio. But if the majority depends on slow-counting states like Michigan or Alaska, the final answer on Senate control could take days or even weeks.
• The first signal of the House’s direction tonight will come during the 6:00–7:30 p.m. ET period when polls close in the above states, as well as Indiana, Kentucky, and Virginia. Certain seats will reveal just how far a potential blue wave is reaching inland.
• The most significant early election returns on the state level will come in Georgia and Ohio, while results for some of the major ballot measures on taxes in Democratic-controlled states in the West may not be known right away.

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How to Watch the Senate

The First Signal. The earliest Senate signals will come in the 7:00-8:00 p.m. ET hour from two seats on the battleground’s edge, another two seats Democrats expect to win, and the night’s first genuine toss-up.

• Florida, where polls close at 7:00 p.m. ET in most of the state, is the fastest-reporting state in the country, so its returns will be the earliest hard data on the Senate race. State Representative Angie Nixon (D) is an underdog against incumbent Senator Ashley Moody (R), but a single-digit race could signal Democratic strength elsewhere. The same is true in South Carolina, where polls also close at 7:00 p.m. ET and Democrat Annie Andrews is in a more closely contested race against incumbent GOP Senator Darline Graham. According to Silver Bulletin’s projections, a Democratic win in either state would push the party’s odds of securing a Senate majority to about 97 percent.
• At 7:00 p.m. and 7:30 p.m. ET, respectively, polls will close in Georgia and North Carolina, two seats that forecasters shifted sharply toward Democrats this fall. According to Silver Bulletin, Democratic wins in either seat largely don’t change the odds of Senate control, though North Carolina would be the first of four seats Democrats must net to win a majority. A GOP win in either seat would make the party favored to hold onto its Senate majority.
• Polls will also close at 7:30 p.m. ET in Ohio, home to one of the cycle’s most hotly contested races. Both parties view Ohio as pivotal to their Senate control efforts and have invested more than half a billion dollars combined, making it the second most expensive Senate race on the board. Former Senator Sherrod Brown (D) leads incumbent Senator John Husted (R) within the margin of error in polls, and Silver Bulletin projects that a Democratic win would make the party about 90 percent favorites to flip the Senate, while a GOP victory would shift the overall race for Senate control to roughly a coin flip.

The Majority Deciders. Most races that determine Senate control close in the 8:00-9:00 p.m. ET window, including the remaining seats where Democrats are playing defense, several key toss-ups, and a handful on the edge of the battleground.

• Polls close in the trio of remaining seats where Democrats are playing defense – New Hampshire, Michigan, and Minnesota – in this window (with Minnesota the latest at 9:00 p.m. ET). GOP Senate leadership views these three states as its best offensive opportunity this cycle, with Michigan being its largest offensive investment. Democratic wins in all three would only slightly improve the party’s odds of flipping the Senate, per Silver Bulletin. However, a GOP win in Minnesota or New Hampshire would make the party a modest favorite to hold its majority, and a GOP win in Michigan would make the GOP’s odds slightly better than a coin flip. Importantly, Michigan can be slow to count its total vote; history suggests a close race might not be called until the next day.
• Polls will close at 8:00 p.m. ET in Maine, Kansas, and most of Texas, and at 9:00 p.m. ET in Iowa. All four states are at the center of the Senate battleground. Texas is the most expensive race of the cycle, and because most voters cast their ballots before Election Day, it can report results relatively quickly. Per Silver Bulletin, a Democratic pickup in any one of these four states (without knowing the result in the other three) would push the party’s odds of Senate control to about 90 percent or a little better, whereas a GOP win in Texas or Maine would make the GOP’s chance of retaining control of the upper chamber about a coin flip.
• Polls will also close at 8:00 p.m. ET in Mississippi and at 9:00 p.m. ET in Louisiana and Nebraska. A Democratic win in any of these states would mark a significant blue wave: Silver Bulletin projects Democrats would be more than 95 percent favorites to flip the Senate if they pick up any of these seats.

The All Nighters. If Senate control is still unknown after 10:00 p.m. ET, the outcome may rest with the two latest-closing battlegrounds, one of which intentionally counts its ballots slowly.

• Out west, Montana has a hypothetically competitive Senate race, where polls close at 10:00 p.m. ET. A handful of polls suggest that independent Seth Bodnar is within striking distance of GOP nominee Kurt Alme, but forecasters rate the former as a significant underdog because a Democrat is on the ballot. Assuming Bodnar ultimately caucuses with Democrats, his victory would make the party about 93 percent favorites to flip the Senate, per Silver Bulletin.
• In Alaska, the final true battleground race, most polls close at midnight. In a vacuum, a win by former Representative Mary Peltola (D) over incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan (R) would make Democrats slightly more than 90 percent favorites to flip the Senate, according to Silver Bulletin. Because Alaska polls close late, the state could be the deciding race in the battle for Senate control. But because Alaska uses a ranked-choice voting system to calculate the Senate result, and because the state won’t run the ranked-choice tabulation until November 18th, it could be weeks until Senate control is known if the race comes down to the Last Frontier.

How to Watch the House

Who Closes First Discloses First. Eight states with House races to watch will be mostly done by 7:30 p.m. ET. Watch these states for the first indication of how the night will go.

• The eight states are Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina, and Virginia, where the Cook Political Report rates 28 House seats as non-safe. Polls close in parts of Indiana and Kentucky at 6:00 p.m. ET. Florida reports votes faster than any other state, and all but the Panhandle closes at 7:00 p.m. ET.
• Decision Desk calculates that Democrats have a 90/91 percent chance of taking the House if they win FL-25 and FL-14, respectively. Both seats have been gerrymandered at least 15 points redder, from Harris +8 and +4 districts to Trump +11 and +9 districts, respectively. If both Democratic incumbents manage to hold on in substantially redder territory, the party will be in great position to do well the rest of the night.
• In Virginia, if Democrats flip VA-01, a Trump +5 seat, they’re in for a good night. If they flip VA-05, a Trump +12 seat, they’re in for a great night. Look to VA-02 to see if a strong Republican incumbent can overcome a difficult national environment. GOP strategists believe the Republican candidate, Representative Jen Kiggans, “has run a nearly flawless campaign.” If she loses, “other Republicans in a low-single-digit Trump seat should brace for impact.”
• In North Carolina, one district in the east and one way out in the west are worth watching – the NC-01 and the NC-11. If Democrats win, they’re in a good position to win the House. Alternatively, if they lose, their odds of winning the House drop to around 60 percent.
• Ohio has four districts worth watching: OH-07, OH-09, OH-01, and OH-13. A Republican holds the first, and Democrats hold the remaining three. The four are roughly in order of competitiveness, with the 7th district the closest race and the 13th district the most blue-leaning.

Signs of a Larger Wave. While the above seats are crucial for determining who will win the majority, a different set of seats will indicate if a blue wave (or even tsunami) is coming ashore.

• There are some seats in deep-red territory closing early. President Trump won KY-16 by a whopping 15 points two years ago. He won SC-01 by 13 points the same year. In FL-09, Trump won the newly rewritten district by 16 points, and the electorate is one-third Latino. This district is an early sign of how much (if at all) Hispanic voters have snapped back towards Democrats.
• Decision Desk notes six seats that would amount to nothing less than “an electoral earthquake that all but guarantees a Democratic majority” if they go blue: IN-05, GA-01, OH-15, SC-02, NC-09, and FL-27. All feature Republican incumbents in seats that have no right being close even in what would otherwise be a very good year for Democrats. The Indiana race closes at 6:00 p.m.; even a close Democrat loss would be a statement in a seat where the Republican lawmaker won by almost 19 points in 2024. The others range from Trump +10 through +16. SC-02 and GA-01 could reveal whether reported higher early Black turnout came to pass.

How to Watch the States

Early Results. Governorships in 36 states and over 80 percent of all state legislative seats are up for election this year.

• The first polls close at 7:00 p.m. ET in Georgia, home to a competitive gubernatorial race between former Democratic Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms and Republican Rick Jackson, a test of whether Democrats can flip a long-held GOP seat on the state level this year. Voters will also elect two seats on the Peach State’s utility regulator, the Public Service Commission. Democratic victories would flip partisan control, building on the two seats the party gained last year. These two races may indicate the extent to which one party has an advantage on the issues of electricity costs and data centers, which are also major topics in other states such as Ohio and Texas.
• At 7:30 p.m. ET, polls close in Ohio and North Carolina. Once a swing state, Ohio has trended steadily red. A victory by Democratic candidate Amy Acton over Republican Vivek Ramaswamy in the gubernatorial race could help Democrats rebuild in territory they’ve lost in the Trump era. In North Carolina, a potential GOP supermajority in the state legislature is at stake, which could neutralize the power of Governor Josh Stein’s (D) veto.
• At 8:00 p.m. ET, polls close in Pennsylvania. Governor Josh Shapiro (D) is expected to cruise to re-election but a bigger margin could give him greater momentum ahead of the 2028 Democratic presidential primaries. His party needs to win three seats in the state Senate to win unified control of the legislature, allowing Shapiro to pursue a partisan legislative agenda.
• At 9:00 p.m. ET, polls close in Arizona and Iowa. In Arizona, control of the governor’s mansion and both chambers of the legislature are up for grabs. In Texas, where polls close for most of the state at 8:00 p.m. ET, Governor Greg Abbott (R) is in the most competitive re-election of his career against the Democratic candidate, state Representative Gina Hinojosa (D), though he’s still favored. Winning a trifecta in Arizona and the Iowa gubernatorial race would be a great night for Democrats; flipping the Texas governor’s mansion would be a remarkable achievement. At 10:00 p.m. ET, polls close in Nevada and results of that state’s highly competitive gubernatorial race may not be clear this evening except for night owls.

Taxes on the Ballot. Taxes are a major topic of ballot referendums this year.

• At 8:00 p.m. ET, the last polls close in Florida. Known for counting ballots quickly, the Sunshine State may offer the earliest results of a tax-related ballot measure this year, a proposal to limit property taxes. Polls also close in Massachusetts at 8:00 p.m. ET. The Bay State is one of several blue states with a question on the ballot relating to taxes on high earners and the results could give an early indication of blue-state voters’ feelings on taxes.
• At 9:00 p.m. ET, polls close in Colorado and Iowa and at 10:00 p.m. ET, polls close in Utah. Colorado’s ballot measure on taxes is the last major one in a blue state that may have results on Election Night for East Coast viewers. Iowa and Utah voters will decide whether to make tax increases more challenging to enact.
• At 11:00 p.m. ET, polls close in California, home to a major fight over a wealth tax, and in Washington state, home to an up-or-down referendum on a new tax on incomes over $1 million. The Golden State conducts elections mostly by mail and is notoriously slow to count, so final results in that state’s contests, including Prop 40’s first-in-the-nation wealth tax and the two ballot propositions designed to defang Prop 40, may not be known for some time.

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