Cozen Currents: An Unprecedented President

“President Donald Trump’s tightening grip on the Republican Party is unprecedented in modern times, particularly at this stage of his presidency.” — Howard Schweitzer, CEO, Cozen O’Connor Public Strategies

The Cozen Lens

• President Trump is finishing his project of fully remaking the GOP in his image through party primaries.
• The crypto market structure legislation (known formally as the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) cleared the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee with bipartisan support. However, the legislation still needs more Democratic votes and key concessions before it can pass the full Senate ahead of an effective August deadline.
• Addressing housing affordability remains a focus of intense bipartisan interest ahead of the midterms, exemplified by lawmakers’ efforts to resolve the differences between the Senate’s and House’s competing versions of a comprehensive housing reform bill.

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A Tale of Two Trumps

The Grand Old Party in Trump’s Image. President Trump has scored three wins in quick succession with his quest to neutralize opposition within the Republican Party.

• No modern American leader has dominated their party so completely. In Indiana alone, nine of the 21 Republican state senators who opposed mid-census redistricting were on the ballot this month. One declined to seek re-election. Of the seven Trump-backed challengers who ran against incumbents, at least five won, while just one incumbent was (clearly) successful. One final race, separated by three votes, is heading to a recount.
• In Louisiana, Senator Bill Cassidy (R-LA) is one of just three Republicans in the upper chamber who voted to convict Trump over five years ago in relation to January 6th; the senator has also repeatedly opposed policies supported by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and the Make America Healthy Again movement. Cassidy recently came in third in his primary, failing to even make it to the runoff.
• The most expensive House primary in U.S. history, costing more than $30 million, concluded last week in Kentucky. In one corner was seven-term Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), the eternal gadfly on the GOP establishment’s side. His libertarian leanings give him more in common with the Tea Party of old than with modern MAGA. Massie was one of just two House Republicans not to vote for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act last year and frequently votes against both non-controversial symbolic resolutions and critical procedural votes from his party. Massie also is leading disclosure efforts related to the Epstein files. In the end, Massie lost his primary to a Trump-endorsed challenger. To quote Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) recently, “This is the party of Donald Trump,” plain and simple.
• Florida, South Carolina, and Texas will all have their party contests today; the marquee battle is the Texas Senate runoff between old school Senator John Cornyn and controversial MAGA-acolyte and recently Trump-endorsed Attorney General Ken Paxton.

But the 2024 Victory Celebrations are Over. Trump remains the essential figure in the eyes of his base, but is struggling with the broader population.

• Even for a historically polarizing politician, Trump’s numbers are startling. He hit a second-term net approval low of -20.2 percent on May 21st — a level comparable to former President George W. Bush at the end of his presidency. 69 percent of independent voters disapproved of his job performance in a New York Times poll. A near-term high of 47.7 percent of voters also strongly disapprove of Trump.
• The same malaise extends to the economy. Consumer confidence is at an all-time low. Household debt is up, and savings are down. 49 percent of voters rate the economy as “poor” (the lowest possible grade). Trump’s net approval on the economy is -32.4 percent, which is lower than his overall rating. Trump’s approval on inflation and the cost of living is a whopping -46.5 percent. 44 percent of voters, and 47 percent of independent voters, said that Trump’s policies had hurt them personally. A recent New York Times poll records that only 30 percent agree that the war with Iran was the right decision. Among independents, 21 percent approve, while 73 percent disapprove.

Battleground Balancing Act. Trump’s unprecedented control over his party makes it especially difficult for swing state lawmakers to do what they usually do in these situations: distance themselves from the president. Vice President JD Vance may be their way of trying to fill the gap.

• Presidents have been unpopular before; in fact, they frequently are unpopular at the end of their second terms. A Politico poll reveals that Trump’s endorsement in battleground districts actually backfires, motivating more former Kamala Harris voters to vote against the candidate than former Trump voters to vote for them.
• Lawmakers of the same party usually respond to this by distancing themselves from their party leader. Bucking the president carries a suite of historical advantages: it permits candidates to portray independence from their party and position themselves against Washington, moderate from unpopular positions, separate themselves from personal or policy scandals, emphasize local issues, and denationalize the race. What makes this period unusual is that Trump’s endorsement remains more essential than ever, even as his national brand is tanking. This dilemma obviously firms up one’s support with the base and in primary elections but could leave swing-seat members with an albatross around their necks.
• Trying to thread this needle, the White House has landed on sending out Vance to campaign on behalf of GOP lawmakers, especially in the Midwest (Vance was formerly a senator from Ohio). Reporting indicates that interest is reciprocated and that the VP is in high demand. The chair of the Michigan GOP says he’s been communicating regarding “all of the different possible options for him to come out.” In Ohio, the Republican Party chair seconded, “It’s a constant conversation for us. . . Anytime we can get the vice president to show up and drive turnout, we welcome that.”
• This could serve as Vance’s opportunity to counter Rubio-mentum, the sentiment that the secretary of state’s star has been rising regarding the 2028 presidential nomination. Vance’s political favorability in tough races, his ability to expand his brand, and the relationships he is building with state and federal lawmakers could all factor into the case he makes for president.

Crypto Market Structure Bill Gains Momentum

Bit by Bit. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act moved a step closer to passage after the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee voted 15-9 to advance it, including two Democratic votes.

• The Clarity Act aims to establish a comprehensive set of market structure regulations for digital assets, including providing rules and definitions for classifying tokens as securities or commodities. Senators Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) and Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) were the two lone Democrats to join committee Republicans in voting to advance the bill from the Banking Committee.
• The Democratic support in the committee for the legislation, though limited, was notable. This support was not guaranteed in the run-up to the markup, and it signals that the bill still has a viable path to becoming law. One of the last-minute agreements that helped secure these two votes was a deal between Alsobrooks and Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) on stablecoin yield, which would ban some third-party yield payments — a key sticking point between banks and crypto firms.
• With the passage of this portion of the bill, it can now be combined with the Senate Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Committee’s own part of the bill, which advanced out of committee on a party-line vote in January. Changes to the Senate Agriculture Committee’s provisions are expected to ensure that it can attract sufficient Democratic support on the Senate floor.

Mining for Votes. Despite the bipartisan committee vote, the market structure bill will need additional changes to garner sufficient Democratic support on the Senate floor, as time for dealmaking rapidly shrinks.

• While the committee vote was significant, additional changes will be necessary for the legislation to secure the minimum seven Democratic votes needed to pass on the Senate floor (assuming all Republicans support the bill). Gallego and Alsobrooks are likely among these votes, but they are not a given without some further modifications. Others who indicated interest ahead of the committee vote, but ultimately voted against the bill include Senators Mark Warner (D-VA), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV), and Raphael Warnock (D-GA). Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) also recently expressed in private a desire for Democrats to get to yes on the bill to negotiators.
• The issue that will likely garner the most attention in the weeks ahead is officeholder ethics, with all Democrats and some Republicans supporting language to restrict federal officeholders and their families from profiting off of crypto-related activities. This restriction would extend to the White House, with Democrats most concerned about the Trump family’s crypto businesses. The provision will need an explicit sign-off from President Trump. Other potential roadblocks include illicit finance provisions (cited by Warnock and Cortez Masto as an issue on the Democratic side) and further pushback from some banking sector stakeholders on the current stablecoin yield language.
• The legislative calendar will also pose a challenge to lawmakers in addressing these issues, with the best chance for passage before the August recess. Until then, the Senate is only scheduled to be in session for eight more weeks before departing town, and the House is scheduled to be in session for even fewer weeks. While it is possible that Congress could send the bill to Trump in the fall, it would then be competing for attention with other must-pass bills and the looming midterm elections.

A Housing Bill Divided Can’t Stand

Taking it to the House. The House passed an amended version of the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act last week by an overwhelming 396-13 bipartisan vote.

• The legislation passed by the House last week is the latest in a series of housing reform bills that both chambers of Congress have been working on since early last year. While each chamber’s version of the bill differs slightly, both would tackle housing supply issues by providing federal guidance to localities on zoning reform, streamlining federal permitting requirements, relaxing regulations on manufactured housing, and expanding financing opportunities for small-dollar mortgages, among other things. The latest iterations of the bill in both chambers include a provision limiting institutional investors’ ability to purchase single-family homes, a top priority of President Trump’s.
• The most meaningful update the House made to the bill this month was revising the section restricting institutional investors’ ability to purchase single-family homes. Like the earlier version of the bill passed by the Senate in March, the legislation includes a provision that would largely prevent institutional investors with more than 350 single-family homes in their portfolio from purchasing additional single-family properties. However, in a move that secured the backing of major housing industry organizations, the House’s bill removed a requirement that institutional investors divest of homes built pursuant to a build-to-rent program, a renovate-to-rent program, or newly constructed or renovated for-sale homes seven years after their purchase. Under the House’s bill, those purchases are entirely exempt from the ban.
• The House-passed bill also includes 12 deregulatory provisions for community banks, championed by House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill (R-AR), intended to encourage de novo bank formation and help community banks compete with larger banks. In addition, an eviction hotline was removed from the House bill, and the Housing Supply Frameworks Act (which would direct the Department of Housing and Urban Development to develop frameworks for zoning and land-use best practices) was included in the House-passed version.

A Weak Foundation in the Senate. A divided Senate is under pressure from the White House to take up and pass the House’s bill ahead of the midterms.

• While a vast majority of senators are interested in housing reform — 89 voted in favor of the upper chamber’s version of the housing bill back in March — key senators urged the House to take up and pass the Senate’s bill without modifications into early last week. Despite the bills’ similarities, Senate GOP leadership did not want to spend the time they would now need moving an amended version of the bill across the Senate floor. Some Senate Republicans also fear that the House’s modifications to the legislation will imperil its Democratic support, which is needed to overcome the upper chamber’s 60-vote threshold for breaking a filibuster.
• Despite the resistance among senators, the upper chamber is under pressure to take up the House’s bill. Last Wednesday, the White House released a statement supporting the measure, and Punchbowl News reports that several key pro-housing-reform Senate Democrats are open to the House’s version of the bill. Politico separately reports that Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) could also back the bill if it is the easiest way to pass a housing bill this year.
• From a 10,000-foot view, lawmakers on both sides of the aisle see housing reform legislation as one of the best ways to address widespread concerns about affordability within the electorate. January polling from the National Association of Realtors found “that just 17% of voters think now is a good time to buy a home – down from 69% in 2013.” A May poll from the Bipartisan Policy Center found that 89 percent of voters support Congress’ efforts to pass a housing bill, while 79 percent view housing as an extremely important issue.

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