Cozen Currents: Trump v. The World’s Most Deliberative Body

“The composition of the post-midterms Senate is likely to make it harder for President Donald Trump to control the legislative process, even if the Republicans maintain majority control.” — Howard Schweitzer, CEO, Cozen O’Connor Public Strategies

The Cozen Lens

• A challenging national environment has put the Senate majority within Democrats’ reach. Even so, securing an outright majority remains an uphill climb because the chamber turns over only about a third of its seats at a time and the battleground is tilted toward GOP-leaning states.
• Even if Republicans retain the Senate, their majority will likely shrink, implying that the upper chamber may be more willing to push back against the White House than it has been in Trump’s second term.
• Although currently not the base case, a Democratic-controlled Senate could change the course of the remainder of President Trump’s second term through oversight and a blockade of his nominations.

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Who (and What) to Watch in Battle for Senate Control

The Environment Meets the Map. The GOP entered this cycle with a three-seat cushion and a structural edge on this year’s map. However, the national climate has given Democrats a credible path to retake control of the chamber, as demonstrated by several key indicators.

• Early last year, the national political environment tipped back in Democrats’ favor, a trend that’s accelerated throughout the first half of 2026. Democrats lead the generic ballot — a measure of which party voters would prefer to represent them in Congress — by about six points while President Trump’s net approval rating, which is highly correlated with midterm results, sits at about -17.4, near its all-time low. July polling from Strength In Numbers/Verasight finds that voters prefer Democrats to handle eight of the 12 major issues the poll tracks, and the party leads by about 10 points on the question of which party voters trust to handle their most important issue.
• Even so, the Senate is far less sensitive to the national mood than the House, somewhat blunting the environment’s impact on this November’s races. Only 35 of the 100 Senate seats are up for re-election or special election this fall, and only 11 of those 35 are considered competitive by election handicappers. Between its existing 53-47 seat Senate majority and the limited competitive playing field, the GOP still retains a built-in advantage this cycle. According to Cook Political Report ratings, among seats not up for re-election and those rated “Solid Republican,” the GOP enters the midterm cycle highly likely to retain at least 47 Senate seats. For Democrats, that number is just 43.
• As a result, while measures of the national environment provide a helpful baseline to understand the battle for Senate control, the most useful signals are Senate-specific rather than national: candidate fundraising, a state’s underlying partisan lean, and the gap between a candidate’s polling and that lean. Weighing all these factors, election handicappers and prediction markets currently give the GOP about a 55 percent chance of holding its majority, with the median outcomes showing a two- or three-seat net gain for Democrats this fall.

Democrats’ Pickup Opportunities. For Democrats, the path to the majority runs through a familiar set of battleground states, beginning with two long-running targets.

• The party’s two best pickup opportunities are the open seat in North Carolina and Senator Susan Collins’ (R) seat in Maine. In North Carolina, former Governor Roy Cooper (D) continues to lead former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley by high single digits, buoyed by high name recognition and a strong fundraising edge. In Maine, Democrats settled on former state Senate President Troy Jackson after a multi-week scramble to replace Graham Platner. Though Jackson enters late and under the cloud of Platner’s exit, early polling gives him a narrow lead. The state’s strong Democratic lean — former Vice President Kamala Harris carried it by about seven points in 2024, and recent New York Times polling shows Democrats up 11 on the generic ballot — makes it one of the party’s best chances for a pickup despite Collins’ history of overperformance.
• Next are two races in GOP-favorable territory that handicappers recently moved to the toss-up column. In Ohio, which Trump carried by more than 11 points in 2024, former Senator Sherrod Brown (D) is running roughly even with appointed Senator Jon Husted (R), helped by Trump’s net-negative approval in the state and, as in North Carolina, a fundraising advantage. In Alaska, Democrats recruited former Representative Mary Peltola (D), a proven crossover performer, to challenge Senator Dan Sullivan (R). The latest New York Times/Siena survey has her down just two points despite the state’s roughly 13-point GOP lean in 2024. Furthermore, its ranked-choice system paired with a spoiler candidate could siphon additional Republican votes.
• Further out sit a handful of reach opportunities. In Texas, state Representative James Talarico (D) has posted record fundraising numbers and polls nearly even with GOP nominee state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), raising hopes the party could finally turn the state blue. In Iowa, where Democrats landed top recruit state Representative Josh Turek (D), the race is competitive but remains the most GOP-leaning of the party’s six main targets. Nebraska and Florida are at the very edge of the battlefield, but flipping those seats would be genuine surprises.

Where Democrats Play Defense. To secure a majority, Democrats first need to hold the seats they already control, several of which are in key swing states this cycle.

• Democrats are defending three open seats vacated by retiring incumbents in Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Michigan. Michigan is the most competitive: its August 4 primary pits progressive former state health official Abdul El-Sayed against Representative Haley Stevens (D), who is backed by the party’s moderate wing, including Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D). The winner will face former Representative Mike Rogers (R) in a toss-up-rated general election. Minnesota’s August 11 primary features a similar progressive-versus-establishment split but a less competitive general. In New Hampshire, Democrats have all but nominated Representative Chris Pappas (NH) in a race the GOP increasingly eyes as a chance to offset losses elsewhere.
• In Georgia, incumbent Senator Jon Ossoff (D) faces the GOP’s nominee, Representative Mike Collins (R). Though the seat should be a prime GOP target, Ossoff’s polling and fundraising edge, along with Collins’ own scandals, have the GOP increasingly looking elsewhere to make up ground.

Implications of a Narrower (and Different) GOP Majority

The ‘YOLO Caucus.’ A group of Republican senators with nothing to lose is causing headaches for the White House.

• The honeymoon period has come to an end. For more than a year, President Trump and the GOP Senate majority worked together to enact the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and roll back Biden-era regulations. Now with the president unpopular and midterms approaching, it’s a different story.
• They’re calling it the ‘YOLO Caucus’ — a handful of Republican senators using their power to buck the administration. There are the classic moderates like Senators Susan Collins (R-ME) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), the first of whom faces an intense reelection fight.
• Then there are the enemies Trump made along the way. He supported successful primary challenges to two incumbents seeking reelection this cycle: Senators John Cornyn (R-TX) and Bill Cassidy (R-LA). He also effectively pressured Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) into retirement. Though the president had opposed them for not fully toeing his line, he’s counter-intuitively given them more power than ever to dissent.
• There are other politicians seeking reelection, like Senators Dan Sullivan (R-AL) and John Husted (R-OH). Add it all together and you have a recipe for an upper chamber that’s (occasionally) willing to take stands.
• Cassidy is the chair of the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee and has repeatedly opposed the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) agenda as the administration aims to find new leaders for the Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Senate Republicans have also worked to thwart Bill Pulte’s Director of National Intelligence nomination and the proposed Department of Justice’s Anti-Weaponization Fund.

Careful What You Wish For. Even with Cornyn, Cassidy, and Tillis gone, the White House could face greater challenges working with the Senate after the midterms than they do now.

• In theory, the above should be a trade of short-term pain for long-term gain, as independently-minded voices within the GOP are replaced with members more closely aligned to the president. But things aren’t so simple.
• True, many thorns in the White House’s side will be gone next year. Senators Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Joni Ernst (R-IA) are retiring. But the loss of some of these critics is intrinsically tied to risking the seat going blue instead. Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC), a strong voice for Federal Reserve independence, may be replaced by a Democrat. Collins and Cornyn may be occasional gadflies but a potential loss of a Republican vote is surely worse for the White House.
• The GOP may have the edge to retain the Senate, but if they do their margin likely will shrink, not grow. A smaller majority gives greater leverage to anyone seeking to dissent. There will still be moderates like Murkowski, a Senate class with reelection dates two years away. There are others, like Senators Tim Scott (R-SC) and Ted Cruz (R-TX), who have presidential ambitions heading into 2028 and might look to strategically break with the president to make a point to the base or to voters in general.
• Compounding the issue is that rabble-rousers are rising to esteemed committee positions. Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI), who threatened to sink the GOP tax cut package last year, will lead the Budget Committee. Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) retains his spot as chair of Homeland Security Committee.
• If the Republicans keep the Senate but their majority weakens, it will become harder for the White House to push controversial nominations through, not easier. It also gives Democrats greater leverage over must-pass legislation.

What a Democratic Majority Would (and Wouldn’t) Mean

A New Frontier for Oversight. A Democratic-controlled Senate would open a second path for oversight of the Trump administration.

• If Democrats win a majority in the Senate as well as the House, they would unlock additional resources for oversight, which could allow them to pursue more investigations into the Trump administration and private sector entities that have relationships with the White House. Rather than be limited to top priorities, they could adopt a wider scope. This would give vocal Trump critics in the upper chamber, such as Senator Adam Schiff (D-CA) and Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), who’s next in line to be the Senate Judiciary Committee’s top Democrat based on seniority, a direct role in oversight.
• Impeachment of Cabinet members or even President Trump himself would be more likely under Democratic control of the Senate. While the Constitution’s requirement of a two-thirds majority vote makes removal from office extremely unlikely, Democrats would be able to set the terms of a Senate trial, unlike during Trump’s first two impeachments. Even if Trump or Cabinet members don’t have to worry about actually being removed from office, an impeachment could use up considerable time and political oxygen.
• A strong Election Night for Senate Democrats would also make a leadership change less likely. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has a popularity problem with his own party. At the end of last year, Gallup found that only 39 percent of Democrats approved of Schumer’s job performance, compared to 64 percent approval for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY). If Schumer presides over big wins in November, a move to the Senate majority leader’s office would be virtually assured. If he fails to retake the majority, he could be more vulnerable to a potential leadership challenge.

Nominations. A Democratic-controlled Senate could blockade Trump’s nominations for judicial and executive branch appointments.

• The judicial confirmation process has become increasingly bitter and partisan in recent years and if Democrats retake the Senate, they’re unlikely to allow Trump to make further lifetime appointments to the federal bench, particularly after his first term pushed the judiciary notably rightward. In the short term, the impact of a Democratic Senate could be limited because the number of judicial vacancies is low after Trump 1.0 and former President Biden’s rapid pace of confirmations. There are only 25 current judicial vacancies and 14 future vacancies as of last week. As Trump’s term continues, however, this list could grow. Following the precedent set by then-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-KY) decision to ignore former President Obama’s nomination of Merrick Garland in 2016, Senate Democrats would likely seek to leave judgeships open for a future Democratic president to fill after the 2028 election.
• Senate Democrats would also be less likely to approve Trump’s picks for top executive branch roles that require confirmation by the upper chamber. As a result, Trump may be stuck with the team he has and may not be able to switch out people in top positions as easily. While Trump is comfortable keeping individuals in acting roles, federal law limits who can be tapped to serve as an acting head of agency and how long they can be in that role. This could restrict his options. If Democrats win the Senate, the optimal time for Trump to make any major personnel moves could be during the lame duck session, when he would still have a GOP-controlled chamber for a few weeks to consider nominations.
• Under a Democratic-controlled Senate, the best shot of getting nominations through would likely be pairing Republican and Democratic appointees of agencies like the Federal Communications Commission where federal law gives seats to the minority party.

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