Pennsylvania Perspective Special Edition: 2024 General Election Recap

November 6, 2024

Information current as of 12:20 p.m. on November 6, 2024

On Tuesday, November 5, millions of voters across the Commonwealth exercised their civic duty by heading to the polls to elect candidates for various federal and state offices — chief among these, the next president of the United States. Election Day came at the conclusion of a historic and extremely contentious campaign cycle — colored by an assassination attempt in Butler County and the stunning last-minute withdrawal from the race by President Joe Biden — during which Pennsylvania once again captured the attention of the entire nation, due both to its critical position as a battleground state and the several state-level elections that would determine who Governor Josh Shapiro (D) will be working with in the years to come. Issues including immigration, inflation, and reproductive rights dominated the national conversation.

Heading into the General Election, Republicans held a 28-22 majority in the state Senate, while Democrats held a slim 102-101 majority in the state House, giving Gov. Shapiro a divided legislature. Twenty-five Senate seats were up for election — 15 Republican and 10 Democratic — while all 203 House seats were up for election. While some results are still outstanding, we know for certain that the divided legislature will continue, as Republicans have secured a majority in the state Senate. At least one state Senate seat has been flipped from Republican to Democratic control (SD-15), while one Democratic seat is still locked in a tight race (SD-05). It appears that no state House seats have flipped, though eight races remain too close to call. The state House will have at least 17 new members (four Democrats, 12 Republicans, and one race too close to call) while the state Senate will have at least three (two Democrats and one Republican).

Looking ahead to next year, members of Congress will be sworn in on Friday, January 3, 2025, while President-elect Donald Trump will be sworn in on Monday, January 20, 2025. Pennsylvania state legislators will assume office on the first day of December 2024.

Federal Races

President

Former President Donald Trump (R) soundly defeated Vice President Kamala Harris (D), his early-morning victory in Pennsylvania key to securing him a second term in the White House. While votes are still being tabulated, President-elect Trump appears to have won the popular vote in addition to the Electoral College.

U.S. Senate

The race between three-term incumbent U.S. Sen. Bob Casey (D) and well-funded challenger Dave McCormick (R) remains too close to call. Sen. Casey, who has been moderate and broadly popular across the commonwealth, currently trails McCormick by less than one percentage point. Republicans have won the Senate, securing 52 seats to Democrats’ 42.

U.S. House

Pennsylvania’s Republican U.S. House candidates appear to be outperforming their Democratic peers, with seven Republican and seven Democratic incumbents winning their respective elections. Republicans are currently leading in all three races that remain too close to call. If the current trend in the vote tally continues, Republicans will have successfully flipped two seats, tipping the balance of the Pennsylvania’s U.S. House delegation from 9-8 to 7-10 Democrats to Republicans. While all 17 House districts were on the ballot, races in the following competitive districts were the most closely watched throughout the 2024 election cycle:

  • PA-01 (Bucks & Montgomery): Four-term incumbent U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R) successfully fended off a challenge from Ashley Ehasz (D), besting her by a whopping 13 percentage points.
  • PA-07 (Carbon, Lehigh, Northampton & Monroe): The race between three-term incumbent U.S. Rep. Susan Wild (D) and state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R) remains too close to call. State Rep. Mackenzie currently leads by fewer than two percentage points.
  • PA-08 (Wayne, Pike, Lackawanna, Luzerne & Monroe): The race between six-term incumbent U.S. Rep. Matt Cartwright (D) vs. Rob Bresnahan (R) remains too close to call. Bresnahan currently leads by just short of two percentage points.
  • PA-10 (Dauphin, Cumberland & York): The race between six-term incumbent U.S. Rep. Scott Perry (R) vs. Janelle Stelson (D) remains too close to call. Rep. Perry currently leads by fewer than two percentage points.
  • PA-17 (Beaver & Allegheny): Freshman U.S. Rep. Chris Deluzio (D) successfully fended off a challenge from state Rep. Rob Mercuri (R).

So far, Democrats have won 181 House seats to Republicans’ 200. With 55 races still too close to call, neither party has crossed the 218-seat threshold necessary to secure a majority.

Statewide Races

Attorney General

York County Attorney General Dave Sunday (R) defeated former two-term Auditor General Eugene DePasquale (D) by more than four percentage points. The seat is vacated by Michelle Henry, who was appointed to finish the term vacated by Governor Josh Shapiro when he assumed the governorship in 2023.

Auditor General

Incumbent Tim DeFoor (R) secured a second term as auditor general, successfully fending off a challenge from state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta (D) by just over five percentage points. Treasurer

Incumbent Stacy Garrity (R) secured a second term as auditor general, successfully fending off a from Erin McClelland (D) by seven percentage points.

State Senate

Heading into Tuesday’s elections, Republicans held a 28-22 majority in the state Senate. Republicans have successfully defended that majority, winning 27 state Senate seats to Democrats’ 22, with one race still too close to call. Races in the following competitive districts were the most closely watched throughout the 2024 election cycle:

  • SD-05 (Philadelphia): The race between incumbent state Sen. Jimmy Dillon (D) and Joe Picozzi (R) remains too close to call. Picozzi currently leads by approximately two percentage points.
  • SD-15 (Dauphin): State Rep. Patty Kim (D) defeated Dauphin County Treasurer Nick DiFrancesco (R) by a staggering 16 percentage points, flipping an open seat vacated by Republican Sen. John DiSanto. The district became friendlier for Democrats during redistricting in 2022.
  • SD-37 (Allegheny): Incumbent state Sen. Devlin Robinson (R) defeated Nicole Ruscitto (D) by six percentage points.
  • SD-45 (Allegheny): State Rep. Nick Pisciottano (D) defeated Jen Dintini (R) by six percentage points. The seat is vacated by Democrat Jim Brewster and became slightly friendlier for Democrats during redistricting in 2022.
  • SD-49 (Erie): Incumbent state Rep. Dan Laughlin (R) defeated Jim Wertz (D) by more than eight percentage points.

State House 

Heading into Tuesday’s elections, Democrats held a 102-101 majority in the state House. All 203 seats were on the ballot, though only 110 of them were contested. So far, Democrats have won 96 state House seats to Republicans’ 99, with incumbents demonstrating success on both sides of the aisle. With eight races still too close to call, neither party has crossed the 102-seat threshold necessary to secure a majority. Races in the following competitive districts were the most closely watched throughout the 2024 election cycle:

  • HD-03 (Erie): Incumbent state Rep. Ryan Bizzarro (D) defeated small-business owner and U.S. Air Force veteran Micah Goring (R) by a whopping 16 percentage points.
  • HD-16 (Beaver): The race between incumbent state Rep. Rob Matzie (D) and Michael Perich (R) remains too close to call. Rep. Matzie currently leads Perich by more than four percentage points.
  • HD-18 (Bucks): Incumbent state Rep. K.C. Tomlinson (R) defeated Anand Patel (D) by 12 percentage points.
  • HD-33 (Allegheny): Incumbent state Rep. Mandy Steele (D) defeated Gary Lotz (R) by a resounding 12 percentage points.
  • HD-44 (Allegheny): Incumbent state Rep. Valerie Gaydos (R) defeated Hadley Haas (D) by eight percentage points.
  • HD-72 (Cambria): The race between incumbent state Rep. Frank Burns (D) and Amy Bradley (R) remains too close to call. Rep. Burns currently leads Bradley by more than four percentage points.
  • HD-137 (Northampton): The race between incumbent state Rep. Joe Emrick (R) and Anna Thomas (D) remains too close to call. Rep. Emrick currently leads Thomas by more than three percentage points.
  • HD-142 (Bucks): Incumbent state Rep. Joe Hogan (R) defeated Anna Payne (D) by 10 percentage points.
  • HD-144 (Bucks): The race between incumbent state Rep. Brian Munroe (D) and Daniel McPhillips (R) remains too close to call. Rep. Munroe currently leads McPhillips by more than two percentage points.
  • HD-160 (Delaware): Incumbent state Rep. Craig Williams (R) defeated business owner Elizabeth Moro (D) by six percentage points.
  • HD-172 (Montgomery/Philadelphia): The race between Sean Dougherty (D) and Aizaz Gill (R) remains too close to call. Dougherty currently leads Gill by more than one percentage point. The seat is vacated by Democratic Rep. Kevin Boyle.

Authors

About Cozen O’Connor Public Strategies

Cozen O’Connor Public Strategies, an affiliate of the international law firm Cozen O’Connor, is a bipartisan government relations practice representing clients before the federal government and in cities and states throughout the country. With offices in Washington D.C., Richmond, Albany, New York City, Philadelphia, Harrisburg, Chicago, and Santa Monica, the firm’s public strategies professionals offer a full complement of government affairs services, including legislative and executive branch advocacy, policy analysis, assistance with government procurement and funding programs, and crisis management. Its client base spans multiple industries, including healthcare, transportation, hospitality, education, construction, energy, real estate, entertainment, financial services, and insurance.

About Cozen O’Connor

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